The swing back of the Malthusian force
The swing back of the Malthusian force
For the past two centuries, living standards around the world have been improving steadily. However, recent data suggests that the trend may have plateaued and could be reversing. Here is the global data on the number of malaria, tuberculosis, and extreme poverty (under 2.15 dollar daily, constant 2017 purchasing power). All numbers are in millions.
year | Malaria | Tuberculosis | Under the $2.15 / Day Baseline (Constant 2017 Purchasing Power) |
2010 | 251 | 9.6 | 1140 |
2015 | 230 | 10 | 740 |
2019 | 252 | 10.1 | 659 |
2022 | 249 | 10.6 | 713 |
2023 | 273 | 10.8 | |
2024 | 282 | 10.7 | 692 |
2026 | 670 |
From the table, we can see that the Malaria number bottomed in 2015. It has risen substantial from its 2015 trough. Tuberculosis has been climbing steadily since 2010. The number of extreme poverty seemed to have bottomed around 2019, the year COVID 19 broke out.
There are many analyses about these data, attributing to this or that factors. But I think the main reason is the Malthusian factors. The speed of the rising population finally outpaces the society’s ability to provide resources.