An update on climate issue

A recent note from Bill Gates began with,

There’s a doomsday view of climate change that goes like this:

In a few decades, cataclysmic climate change will decimate civilization. The evidence is all around us—just look at all the heat waves and storms caused by rising global temperatures. Nothing matters more than limiting the rise in temperature.

Fortunately for all of us, this view is wrong.

This is a nice way to say they have been lying all the time. Climate crisis is the grandest wealth grab scheme in human history by the powerful. That is why there is such a strong consensus. But the hunger for energy from AI and other developments make such a consensus difficult to maintain in the future.

The facts, if not “science”, whatever that word means, are very clear. We live in the quaternary period, a geological period specifically designed for the ice age. The global temperature of Earth is among the lowest over geological time. The global temperature is trending down for the last fifty million years. From the geological records, together with the Milankovitch theory, we are entering a new glacial period soon, if without the large-scale fossil fuel use since Industrial Revolution.

The concentration of CO2 in atmosphere is only 0.04%, an extremely low level over geological time. Many plants have evolved to be C4, adapting to the low CO2 environment.  

Many people think that there is a consensus on climate issues by scientists. So far, there are three Nobel prizes related to climate issues. In 2007,Nobel peace prize went to Al Gore and IPCC. In 2018, Nobel economics prize went to William Nordhaus. In 2021, Nobel physics prize went to Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann. On climate issues, the Nobel prizes go to politicians, economists, and scientists, in that order. People thought politics follows science. The order of Nobel prizes seem to suggest the opposite is true.

When you ask AI, purely as technical questions, AI will tell you exactly the same thing. But when you ask AI questions by relating them to climate crisis, their tones are very different.

Reference:

Bill Gates, Three tough truths about climate, Oct 27, 2025

https://www.gatesnotes.com/three-tough-truths-about-climate

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