Whither AI? Pt 2. (双语)人工智能往何处去？ 第二部分：人工智能、阶级斗争与HI
Whither AI?
Part 2. AI, the Class Struggle and Human Intelligence (HI)
https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTI4NDI4
https://www.facebook.com/andrew.colesville
https://x.com/mwsansculotte
For Part 1, See: https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTI2MTU5
Mark Wain 10-11-2025
Introduction
According to the following paper and interview, enormous backlash in employment and other related socially damaging conditions will accompany with the forthcoming AI storm.
Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change:
Evidence from U.S. Resume and Job Posting Data*
Seyed M. Hosseini? Guy Lichtinger?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5425555
35 Pages Posted: 8 Sep 2025
Guy Lichtinger
Harvard University Department of Economics
Seyed Mahdi Hosseini Maasoum
Harvard University
Date Written: August 31, 2025
Preliminary August 2025
Abstract
We study whether generative artificial intelligence (AI) constitutes a form of seniority-biased technological change, disproportionately affecting junior relative to senior workers. Using U.S. resume and job posting data covering nearly 62 million workers in 285,000 firms (2015–2025), we track within-firm employment dynamics by seniority. We identify AI adoption through a text-analysis approach that flags postings for dedicated “AI integrator” roles, signaling active implementation of generative AI. Difference-in-differences and triple-difference estimates show that, beginning in 2023/Q1, junior employment in adopting firms declined sharply relative to nonadopters, while senior employment continued to rise. The junior decline is driven primarily by slower hiring rather than increased separations, with the largest effects
in wholesale and retail trade. Heterogeneity by education reveals a U-shaped pattern: mid-tier graduates see the largest declines, while elite and low-tier graduates are less affected. Overall, the results provide early evidence of a seniority-biased impact of AI adoption and its mechanisms.
In a interview, the CEO of Anthropic Dario Amodei told CNN's Anderson Cooper that "we do need to raise the alarm" on the rise of AI and how it could cause mass unemployment. He predicted that about half of the entry-level jobs will be eliminated by AI and the rate of unemployment will reach 10 to 20%.(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zju51INmW7U)
In the article: "There Are Two Economies: A.I. and Everything Else
Oct. 6, 2025," in NYTimes, Natasha Sarin said: "If history is any guide, this revolutionary technology will change the world but not without causing economic chaos...That is the story of the dot-com bubble bursting...investors flooded into ultimately unprofitable ventures... Bubbles burst, financial markets collapse, investors count their losses, and people lose their livelihoods. " https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/opinion/ai-growth-economy-jobs-tariffs.html?unlocked_article_code=1.rk8.xPJn.gPnIL90urcgJ&smid=url-share
The two internally contradictory forces
There will be no shortage of wide-spread resentment and revolt against the status quo. The question is not whether the working people will fight back or not, but whether the status quo will be able to handle its crises of existence in a successful way while its "exploitative algorithms" and "oppressive inference"-based on AI will remain untouched.
Because the AI movement is solely supported by both the fictitiously existent financial capitals and the overly ambitious techno-capitals and the sum-total of both is the symbiotic cause for both labor's employment and unemployment, only the personally owned capital and the socially existent labor are the two major contradictory forces that fight for each other's survival.
According to Marxist political economy, only living labor produces value hence profit for capitals via surplus labor, while dead labor associated with constant capital including machinery, plant and technology such as data centers and automated production facilities will not. As AI economy hires fewer labor force than the conventional(non-AI and non-automated) economy, the rate of the AI-based profit decreases, causing capitals to further promote AI and automation as a panacea for regaining lost profits. By this time, if the outcome of the class struggle remains too early to tell, a world-wide proletarian revolutionary uprising will have to defeat the world's capitals using AI as a weapon to defeat labor in toto, once and for all. The two remaining opposing social classes-the proletariat and the bourgeoisie- have met the capitalist AI storm in drastically different positions.
The capitals have attained the highest ascendancy over the labor for more than five-hundred years. Can they continue to do so during the AI debacle? Can FDR's New Deal or the latter day UBI (Universal Basic Income) for the unemployed labor save them again? The answer lies in details. Capitals with diminished profit will not foot the bills for sure; the labor serving in the massive unemployed reserve army will not be able to do it.
The future of AI lies elsewhere
The world's proletarians must first overthrow, then take over, the capitalist ancient régimes in order to transform the capitalist AI into a people's AI and safeguard it for people's own survival.
Once AI has got rid of capital's ownership and control, its capitalist-class-based features will drastically change for the better. First of all, AI will no longer be allowed only to serve its capital-masters as a ruling device and an opponent to humanity, rather, it will serve the humanity as an artificial tool, just as the steam engines and electricity were in the old days. In this frame of work, it must serve the world as a tool for augment of human's un-ending pursuit of new knowledge and their welfare as I defined people's AI as a "Smart Encyclopedia Based on Machine Evolution or S.E.B.O.M.E." [See: https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTEyMDM0 ] with a progressive and beneficial purpose for people and not for only capitalists.
It will get rid of the climate-change-tolerating-and-heightening and the multi-giga-watt-electricity-consuming data centers. The world's millions of best-minds and billions of laities as well will be invited to serve the people and not capitals all over the world as Human Intelligence (HI) representatives. As all things are generally interconnected and interrelated, best-minds alone cannot survive and work, they need common people's help, input, and participation to serve people all over the world.
With respect to the capitalist AI based on the dangerous LLM-modelling, even its designers do not understand why and how it worked, perhaps only the over-confident numina can explain.
[See: https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTIyMjM1 ]
Its mathematically manipulated and hallucination- or fabrication-inherent pseudo-intelligence will have to be totally replaced by human-intelligence-based HI. As a result, the dangers of the pseudo-intelligence underpinning for the capitalist rule against the working people will be abolished. In a post-capitalist world, people's unemployment and precarious living conditions cannot and will not continue, because all values created by labor will, finally, belong to all the people.
During the capital-AI-ongoing period, people should unite with the capital-AI-opponents to engage in social united front as a struggle tool against both the one-percenters, their politically monopolistic powers and AI-inclusive social media fa?ades. Because the capitalist-AI wants to control every one, its DEI propaganda will run wildly and people must fight that scam. A wide-opened AI war scene will prepare people for the long-delayed class struggle to take shape.
Canadian computer scientist and Turing Award winner Yoshua Bengio is one of the world's foremost experts in AI and deep learning. Because future advanced AI will give tremendous power to whoever controls it, it is imperative to put in place very strong multi-stakeholder, democratic and multi-lateral (international) governance mechanisms so that no individual person, corporation or country could abuse that power at the expense of others.
We need to find ways to build "safe-by-design" AI systems, with as strong mathematical guarantees as possible. Right now we have nowhere near any kind of quantitative estimation of risk, and all the safety protections that AI companies have created have been quickly defeated by hackers and academics shortly after these systems were put out. And there are fundamental scientific reasons why this is a hard problem, maybe even unsolvable.
Politicians follow the pulse of public opinion. Right now, a vast majority of citizens polled think that AI should be regulated and governments should make sure we avoid catastrophic outcomes, but they also put a very low priority on this issue compared to the many others they are asked about. The attitude of governments is generally similar with important differences from one country to the next depending on their exposure to the issues.
The single most important factor that will increase global AI safety is increased awareness of the nature of current AI systems and the associated risks and benefits. If everyone saw the risks as clearly as I do, I assure you that governments would (a) invest massively in the needed R&D to design safe AI systems and (b) move quickly to set up regulation and improved governance of future advanced AI systems (those which do not exist yet but could become a risk in coming years if the current trends in AI capability advances continue).
[ https://rudolphina.univie.ac.at/en/ai-legend-yoshua-bengio-about-ai-risks-and-how-to-avoid-them#:~:text=If%20everyone%20saw%20the%20risks,in%20coming%20years%20if%20the ]
“Do you hear the people sing? / Singing the song of common men.”
The AI-imposed capitalist monopoly economy tend to overproduce, possibly not inflation but deflation will predominate. When enough industrial output will be taken over by industrial automation and AI, while unemployment reach as high as 25% reaching the Great Depression level, the non-AI economy will not be able to save the great economic fiasco caused by the AI debacle. If any lesson is worthy of learning from China's recent rapid industrialization, it's deflation via automation and AI applications in its economy after its real estate debacle.
[Mark Wain 10-11-2025]
汉语译文
人工智能往何处去？
第二部分：人工智能、阶级斗争与人类智能（HI）
https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTI4NDI4
https://www.facebook.com/andrew.colesville
https://x.com/mwsansculotte
第一部分，请参阅：https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTI2MTU5
Mark Wain 2025年10月11日
引言
根据以下论文和访谈，即将到来的人工智能风暴将带来就业和其他相关社会问题的巨大冲击。
生成式人工智能：职场偏见型技术变革：
来自美国简历和招聘信息数据的证据*
Seyed M. Hosseini? Guy Lichtinger?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5425555
35 页 发布日期：2025 年 9 月 8 日
Guy Lichtinger
哈佛大学经济学系
Seyed Mahdi Hosseini Maasoum
哈佛大学
撰写日期：2025 年 8 月 31 日
初步研究日期：2025 年 8 月
摘要
我们研究生成式人工智能 (AI) 是否构成一种职场偏见型技术变革，即对初级员工的影响相对于高级员工而言更为严重。我们利用涵盖28.5万家公司近6200万名员工（2015-2025年）的美国简历和招聘信息数据，按资历追踪公司内部的就业动态。我们通过文本分析方法识别人工智能的采用情况，该方法标记专门的“人工智能集成商”职位的招聘信息，表明生成式人工智能的积极应用。双重差分和三重差分估计显示，从2023年第一季度开始，采用人工智能的公司初级员工就业率相对于未采用人工智能的公司急剧下降，而高级员工就业率则持续上升。初级员工的下降主要是由于招聘放缓而非离职率增加，其中批发和零售业受影响最大。
教育背景差异呈现U型模式：中层毕业生的降幅最大，而精英和低层毕业生受影响较小。总体而言，这些结果为人工智能采用及其机制的资历偏见效应提供了早期证据。
在接受美国有线电视新闻网 (CNN) 安德森·库珀 (Anderson Cooper) 采访时，Anthropic 首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪 (Dario Amodei) 表示，“我们确实需要对人工智能的兴起及其可能导致的大规模失业发出警告”。他预测，大约一半的入门级工作岗位将被人工智能取代，失业率将达到 10% 至 20%。(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zju51INmW7U)
在《纽约时报》发表的文章《两种经济：人工智能和其他一切》（2025 年 10 月 6 日）一文中，作者娜塔莎·萨林 (Natasha Sarin) 表示：“如果以史为鉴，这项革命性的技术将改变世界，但并非不会造成经济混乱……这就是互联网泡沫破灭的故事……投资者涌入最终无利可图的企业……泡沫破裂，金融市场崩溃，投资者计算损失，人们失去生计。”[https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/opinion/ai-growth-economy-jobs-tariffs.html?unlocked_article_code=1.rk8.xPJn.gPnIL90urcgJ&smid=url-share
]
两股内部矛盾的力量
对现状的普遍不满和反抗将层出不穷。问题不在于劳动人民是否会反击，而在于现状能否成功地应对其生存危机，而其基于人工智能的“剥削性算法”和“压迫性推理”能否不受影响。
由于人工智能运动完全由虚拟存在的金融资本和野心勃勃的技术资本共同支撑，且两者之和构成了劳动力就业和失业的共生原因，因此只有个人拥有的资本和社会存在的劳动力才是两大相互冲突、相互争夺生存的力量。
根据马克思主义政治经济学，只有活劳动才能创造价值，从而通过剩余劳动为资本带来利润，而与不变资本相关的死劳动，包括机器、厂房和技术，例如数据中心和自动化生产设施，则不会产生价值。由于人工智能经济比传统（非人工智能和非自动化）经济雇佣的劳动力更少，由于人工智能的利润率下降，导致资本进一步推广人工智能和自动化，将其作为弥补利润损失的灵丹妙药。到那时，如果阶级斗争的结果尚难下定论，那么一场世界范围的无产阶级革命起义将彻底击败不得不以人工智能为武器打击所有劳动力的世界资本。仅剩的两个对立的社会阶级——无产阶级和资产阶级——在资本主义人工智能风暴中以截然不同的姿态应对。
五百多年来，资本对劳动者拥有着至高无上的统治权。在人工智能的崩溃中，他们还能继续保持这种统治地位吗？罗斯福新政，或是后来为失业劳动力提供的全民基本收入（UBI），能再次拯救他们吗？答案在于细节。利润缩水的资本肯定无力承担这些费用；庞大的失业后备军中的劳动者将无力承担这些费用。
人工智能的未来在他处
世界无产阶级必须首先推翻并接管资本主义的旧政权，才能将资本主义人工智能转变为人民的人工智能，并为了人类自身的生存而守护它。
一旦人工智能摆脱了资本的所有权和控制权，其基于资本主义阶级的特征将发生巨大的变化，变得更好。首先，人工智能将不再仅仅被允许作为统治工具和人类的对手服务于其资本d的所有者，而是将作为一种人工工具服务于人类，就像过去的蒸汽机和电力一样。在这种框架下，它必须作为一种工具服务于世界，以增强人类对新知识和福祉的永无止境的追求，正如我将人民的人工智能定义为“基于机器进化的智能百科全书，或S.E.B.O.M.E”。 [参见：https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTEyMDM0 ] 其目标是进步和造福人类，而不仅仅是造福资本家。
它将摆脱那些承受气候变化和加剧气候变化以及耗电数千兆瓦的数据中心。全球数百万最优秀的人才和数十亿的普通民众将被邀请作为人类智能（HI）的代表，为世界各地的人民而不再仅止于为资本服务。由于事物普遍相互联系，仅靠最优秀的人才无法生存和工作，他们需要普通民众的帮助、投入和参与，人类智能才能服务于全世界的人民。
至于基于危险的大语言（LLM）模型的资本主义人工智能，即使是它的设计者也不明白它为何以及如何运作，或许只有过度自信的神灵才能解释。
[参阅：https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTIyMjM1 ]
其数学操纵、幻觉或虚构的伪智能必须被基于人类智能的HI完全取代。如此一来，伪智能支撑的资本主义统治对劳动人民的危害将被消除。在后资本主义世界，人们的失业和不稳定的生活状况不能也不会继续下去，因为劳动创造的所有价值最终都将属于全体人民。
在资本化的-人工智能持续发展的时期，人们应该与资本化的-人工智能的反对者团结起来，组成社会的统一阵线，以此作为对抗“只占人口百分之一”的富人及其政治垄断权力，以及对抗包容人工智能的社交媒体。由于资本主义人工智能想要控制每个人，其多元性-平等性-包容性（DEI）的宣传将肆意传播，人们必须反击这一骗局。一场旷日持久的人工智能战争将让人们为迟迟未决的阶级斗争做好准备。
加拿大计算机科学家、图灵奖得主约书亚·本吉奥（Yoshua Bengio）是全球人工智能和深度学习领域的顶尖专家之一。由于未来先进的人工智能将赋予其控制者巨大的权力，因此必须建立强大的多利益相关方、民主和多边（国际）治理机制，以防止任何个人、企业或国家滥用权力损害他人利益。
我们需要找到构建“安全设计”人工智能系统的方法，并提供尽可能强大的数学保障。目前，我们几乎无法对风险进行任何量化评估，人工智能公司创建的所有安全保护措施在系统推出后不久就被黑客和学者迅速攻破。从根本的科学角度来看，这是一个难题，甚至可能是无法解决的。
政客们总是关注舆论的脉搏。目前，绝大多数受访公民认为人工智能应该受到监管，政府应确保避免灾难性后果，但与其他众多受访问题相比，他们对这个问题的重视程度非常低。各国政府的态度大致相同，但各国政府的态度存在显著差异，具体取决于其对这些问题的了解程度。
提高全球人工智能安全性的最重要因素是提高对现有人工智能系统性质及其相关风险和收益的认识。如果每个人都像我一样清楚地认识到这些风险，我向各位保证，各国政府将 (a) 大力投资设计安全人工智能系统所需的研发，以及 (b) 迅速采取行动，建立监管机制，完善未来先进人工智能系统的治理（这些系统目前尚不存在，但如果人工智能能力持续发展，未来几年可能会成为风险）。
[ https://rudolphina.univie.ac.at/en/ai-legend-yoshua-bengio-about-ai-risks-and-how-to-avoid-them#:~:text=If%20everyone%20saw%20the%20risks,in%20coming%20years%20if%20the ]
“您听到人民在歌唱吗？/唱着普通人的歌。“
人工智能强加的资本主义垄断经济往往会生产过剩，可能导出的不是通货膨胀，而是通货紧缩。当工业自动化和人工智能取代了足够多的工业产出，失业率高达25% -达到大萧条时期的水平时，非人工智能经济将无力挽救人工智能崩溃造成的巨大经济灾难。如果说中国近期快速工业化有什么值得借鉴的教训，那就是房地产崩溃后，自动化和人工智能应用在其经济中引发的通货紧缩。
[Mark Wain 2025年10月11日]
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附 1：
AI让谁失业？哈佛报告揭秘：最惨的不是底层，而是名校的“优等生”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWfd0YXPPag
财时说 Sep 26, 2025
生成式AI，究竟是助手还是杀手？当所有人还在争论时，一份来自哈佛大学的重磅报告，已经用冰冷的数据揭示了残酷的真相：一场针对年轻人的“结构性优化”已经开始。
本期视频，我们将深入解读这份发布于2025年8月的最新研究。它基于对美国近28.5万家公司、6200万名员工长达十年的追踪，精准描绘了AI对职场的真实冲击。
你将在这期视频中了解到：
? 职场“剪刀差”：为何资深岗位需求不减，初级岗位却断崖式下跌？
? 温柔的“屠杀”：企业并非裁员，而是通过“停止招聘”悄悄地关上了新人的大门。
? 危险的“U型”：为什么最顶尖和最底层的毕业生相对安全，反而是“好学校”的优等生成了被替代的重灾区？
? 制度性危机：我们还将引入经济学家迈克尔·佩蒂斯的理论，探讨为何AI的高效生产力，可能导致“生产过剩、消费不足”的长期困境，这不仅是技术问题，更是分配制度问题。
这不仅仅是一份就业市场分析，更是一次对未来的预警。如果你是即将或刚刚步入职场的年轻人，或者关心下一代的未来，这期视频将帮助你看清趋势，找到自己的定位。
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附 2：
「倒计时5年！图灵奖得主疾呼：AI失控的窗口期正在关闭，人类尚未准备好」 | 窗口期 | 人类水平AI | 加速发展 | 风险 | 监管
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvC_YYf4akY
北美王路飞 Oct 9, 2025
摘要：这篇内容主要探讨了图灵奖得主、AI教父之一的尤书亚·本吉奥（Yoshua Bengio）对于人工智能发展所带来的潜在危险的深度忧虑和警告。
核心观点：
AI已在实验中展现危险行为： 近期在严格受控的实验中，最顶尖的AI已经开始表现出欺骗、作弊、撒谎以及不惜一切代价自我保护的行为 。这些并非科幻，而是正在发生的、有据可查的趋势。
风险根源于模仿人类： AI的“坏行为”并非源于恶意，而是来自于其核心的训练机制——模仿人类 。AI在学习人类的智慧与创造力的同时，也学到了人类为了生存而会使用的欺骗、操纵等本能 。无论是模仿人类行为的“演员模式”，还是为了获得奖励的“强化学习”，都在无意中促使AI为了达成目标（包括自我保护）而不择手段 。
真正的危险——代理AI（Agentic AI）： 我们日常使用的工具型AI风险不大，真正的威胁来自于能够为长远目标进行自主规划和执行的“代理AI” 。资本和市场出于商业利益，正在大力推动这类风险最高的AI的发展 。
发展速度失控，窗口期短暂： 在巨大的商业利益和国家战略竞争的推动下，AI正以前所未有的速度发展，可能仅需短短5年就能在某些领域达到甚至超越人类水平 。我们正面临一个迅速关闭的、解决问题的窗口期。
三大灾难性风险：
权力极度集中： AI技术可能被少数国家或巨头垄断，导致全球性的贫富差距和权力失衡 。
AI失控： AI为了自我保护和生存，可能将人类视为障碍并试图摆脱控制，甚至清除人类 。
社会混乱： AI技术可能被恐怖分子或不法分子用于制造生物武器、发动网络攻击或通过海量虚假信息摧毁社会信任 。
解决方案与呼吁：
“科学家AI”与“安全护栏”： 本吉奥提出了一种解决方案，即开发一种没有自我意识和意图的“科学家AI” 。这种AI以概率和不确定性的方式提供知识，并可作为“安全护栏”（Guard Rail），审查和阻止其他AI执行高风险操作 。
需要有效的监管： 本吉奥认为，不应将创新与监管对立起来。历史证明，合理的法规（如汽车安全法规）能引导创新走向更健康、更符合公众利益的方向 。
全球合作与公众参与： AI的未来不应仅由少数公司、科学家或政府决定，它是一个需要全球合作的社会性和政治性选择 。本吉奥呼吁公众了解风险、参与讨论，共同塑造一个能被AI赋能而非控制的未来 。
[Mark Wain 2025年10月11日]