ROC台湾地位确定论（The Theory of ROC Taiwan''s Established）
ROC台湾地位确定论
The Theory of ROC Taiwan's Established Status
Archer Hong Qian
2025年7月29日 · Vancouver
2025年9月16日再述于 Portland, Maine
台湾作为“亚细亚孤儿”，一会儿被荷兰收留，一会儿被明夷抢占，一会儿被满清收养，一会儿又卖给日本，后来又归属中华民国，成为“中华民国台湾”……但如今，经过大半个世纪的历练，如今已经成长为一位偏偏风采美少年，为大陆人民与世界各国瞩目！
一、当代主权原理
台湾的主权属于台湾2350万人民，这是现代国际政治学的基本常识与正当性起点。
二、历史沿革
1.1945年：日本战败，台湾归还中华民国（ROC）。
2.1949年：中华人民共和国成立，控制大陆，形成“中华民国（ROC）台湾”与“中华人民共和国（PRC）大陆”两个互不承认、却同时存在的政治实体——都符合“有限承认国家”（States with limited recognition）概念。
3.顺便说一句，“台湾独立”是个伪题，始作俑者是1947年反对中华民国政府的毛泽东（1947年台湾爆发官民冲突的“二二八事件”，毛泽东在延安的广播讲话说：“我们赞成台湾独立”），但早已成为过去。此外，诸般“台湾地位未定论”（见维基百科相关条目），亦与“有限承认国家”（固定的领土、永久的居民、政府、与其他国家建立外交关系的能力）概念不符，而有的“未定论”实际是“确定论”。
三、冷战与联合国阶段
1950–1960年代，老蒋反攻大陆无望。
1970年代，老蒋以“汉贼不两立”为由，拒绝保留“联合国观察员”地位；联合国第2758号决议将“蒋介石集团驱逐出联合国”，但《联合国宪章》依旧保留中华民国创始会员国的名分。
四、经济转型与战略自立
1970–1980年代，小蒋开启“催台青”社会改革，大力启用台湾本土人进各级政府机关，坚持对PRC大陆的“三不政策”，并开放ROC台湾党禁、报禁。台湾由此成为“亚洲四小龙”之首，确立现代经济强国地位。
五、宁静革命与还权于民
1990年代，李登辉主政，先后完成：
1.与野百合学生运动交互促成，开创性的“国是会议”；
2.结束“万年国会”；
3.废止《动员戡乱临时条款》；
4.就228事件公开道歉；
5.1996年实现划时代的总统直选；
6.李登辉主动放弃第二次参加2000年总统直选。
由此，中华民国台湾完成了主权在民的现代国家转型，成为名副其实的共和国，可谓亚洲的“民主灯塔”。
而且重要的是：
第一，李登辉主政下的“宁静革命与还权于民”过程中，不但改变了老蒋“反攻大陆”与“汉贼不两立”的政策，而且改变了小蒋对大陆不接触、不谈判、不妥协的“三不政策”，也就是说，根据“有限承认国家”概念，在台湾的中华民国政府事实承认了大陆的中华人民共和国政府合法存在，而这一具有历史与现实意义的政治表态，实际非同小可，但不被大陆政府忽略不计并未给予对等承认，而且被美国和世界视而不见。
第二，2000年至今，中华民国台湾的民主政体与民生、科技、人文成就，均居全球前列，并经受住政党轮替与社会考验。
六、战略判断：国际承认的转折点
当前世界竞争格局，已来到关键时刻：
1.谁（特别是PRC与美国）率先承认ROC台湾合法政府，谁就能获得战略性先机。但需要尊重常识和历史的勇气、智慧和格局。
2.未来三年，美国极可能正式宣布承认事实存在的ROC台湾政权，并恢复外交关系。
3.在此之前，不排除以色列、立陶宛、捷克等国率先承认，甚至引发联合国辩论。
届时，PRC无论作出如何强烈反应，但最明智的作法，或顺势而为，或被倒逼私下将进入谈判。最终可能出现：
第一，实际上，ROC自小蒋之后的历任总统，已在不同程度上默认、乃至正式承认PRC的合法政权地位，而PRC对ROC的政治承认，只是尽早的事——历史上存在的诸般“未定论”，其实已经蕴涵着“确定论”；
第二，ROC与PRC同时宣布结束敌对关系，签署和平恊议；
第三，两岸由此开启对等和解相互学习扶持的共生之路，也反过来促使PRC大陆政体的深层转变——让中华人民共和国也渐次名副其实越来。
这将是两岸中华儿女的真正福祉。
Archer Hong Qian
2025年9月16日 · Portland, Maine
The Theory of ROC Taiwan's Established Status
ROC台湾地位确定论
Archer Hong Qian 钱宏
July 29, 2025 · Vancouver
Revised September 16, 2025 · Portland, Maine
Taiwan, long called the “orphan of Asia,” was at times under Dutch rule, at times seized by the Ming loyalists, later absorbed by the Qing Empire, then ceded to Japan, and after World War II restored to the Republic of China (ROC)—becoming “ROC Taiwan.” After more than half a century of trials, Taiwan has now grown into a confident and graceful young state, admired both by the people of mainland China and the world.
I. Principle of Modern Sovereignty
The sovereignty of Taiwan belongs to its 23.5 million people. This is a basic axiom of modern international political science and the starting point of legitimate authority.
II. Historical Evolution
1、1945: Japan’s defeat returned Taiwan to the Republic of China (ROC).
2、1949: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) was established, taking control of the mainland. Two distinct political entities emerged: “ROC Taiwan” and “PRC Mainland.” They did not recognize each other, yet both fit the definition of “states with limited recognition.”
3、A side note: “Taiwan independence” is a pseudo-issue. The first instigator was none other than Mao Zedong in 1947, who, in response to the February 28 Incident in Taiwan, declared in a Yan’an radio broadcast: “We support Taiwan independence.” That debate has long been overtaken by history. Similarly, the “Taiwan status undetermined theory” (see Wikipedia entry) does not align with the concept of a “state with limited recognition” (fixed territory, permanent residents, a government, and capacity to conduct foreign relations). In fact, some so-called “undetermined theories” already contain the seed of “established status.”
III. Cold War and the United Nations
During the 1950s–1960s, Chiang Kai-shek’s attempt to retake the mainland proved futile.
In the 1970s, Chiang invoked the principle of “no co-existence with traitors” (汉贼不两立) and refused to retain an “observer” seat at the UN. UN Resolution 2758 expelled “the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek” from the United Nations, but the ROC’s identity as a founding member of the UN Charter was never erased.
IV. Economic Transformation and Strategic Autonomy
In the 1970s–1980s, Chiang Ching-kuo initiated deep social reforms, promoting native Taiwanese into all levels of government, maintaining a “Three Nos” policy toward the PRC (no contact, no negotiation, no compromise), while lifting martial controls on parties and the press. Taiwan thus became the leader among the “Four Asian Tigers,” establishing itself as a modern economic powerhouse.
V. The Quiet Revolution and Return of Power to the People
In the 1990s, under Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan completed a series of transformative steps:
1、The groundbreaking National Affairs Conference (国是会议), achieved through interaction with the Wild Lily student movement;
2、The termination of the “permanent parliament”;
3、The abolition of the “Temporary Provisions for Mobilization to Suppress the Communist Rebellion”;
4、A formal apology for the February 28 Incident;
5、The landmark introduction of direct presidential elections in 1996;
6、Lee Teng-hui’s voluntary decision not to run in the 2000 election.
Through this Quiet Revolution, ROC Taiwan achieved the modern transformation of sovereignty residing in the people, becoming a genuine republic and widely hailed as the “Beacon of Democracy” in Asia.
Two key points stand out:
First, during this process of democratization, the ROC government in Taiwan not only abandoned Chiang Kai-shek’s “counterattack the mainland” and “no co-existence with traitors” policies, but also moved beyond Chiang Ching-kuo’s “Three Nos.” In effect, under the concept of “limited recognition statehood,” ROC Taiwan acknowledged the PRC’s legitimate governance of the mainland. This was of immense historical and political significance, though ignored by the PRC and overlooked by the United States and the world.
Second, since 2000, ROC Taiwan’s democratic institutions, public welfare, technological innovation, and cultural achievements have ranked among the best globally, having successfully withstood repeated tests of party alternation and social resilience.
VI. Strategic Judgment: The Turning Point of International Recognition
Today’s global competition has reached a decisive moment:
1、Whoever (especially the PRC or the United States) first formally recognizes the ROC government in Taiwan will seize a major strategic advantage. Such recognition, however, requires courage, wisdom, and vision rooted in common sense and historical reality.
2、Within the next three years, the United States is highly likely to formally acknowledge the de facto ROC Taiwan government and restore diplomatic relations.
3、Before that, countries such as Israel, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic may take the lead, potentially triggering a UN debate.
Whatever strong reactions the PRC might display, the wisest path will be either to adapt with the trend or to be compelled into negotiations. Ultimately, the likely outcomes include:
First, since Chiang Ching-kuo, successive ROC presidents have, to varying degrees, tacitly or explicitly acknowledged the PRC as a legitimate regime. Thus, PRC recognition of ROC is merely a matter of timing—past “undetermined” debates already carry the weight of “established.”
Second, ROC and PRC could simultaneously declare the end of hostilities and sign a peace agreement.
Third, both sides could then embark on a path of reciprocal reconciliation, mutual learning, and symbiotic support—paving the way for a profound transformation of the PRC’s political system, enabling it gradually to become a genuine republic.
Such a development would be the true blessing for the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Archer Hong Qian
Portland, Maine · September 16, 2025
---
附录
2020年旧文《“镜”与“灯”：PRC & ROC问题的8个观察点与8种可能的解决方式——台海时局发展趋势之我见》摘要
一、“镜”：八个观察点
1. 国际法定位
台湾问题本质上不是“内政”，而是二战后国际秩序遗留问题。《开罗宣言》《波茨坦公告》《旧金山和约》与《联合国宪章》为台湾地位提供了多层解释空间。ROC虽失联合国席位，但其作为创始会员国的历史身份并未被彻底抹去。
2. 中美关系格局
台海问题始终是中美博弈的关键杠杆。从1979年《中美建交公报》到近年的“台北法案”，美国对台政策从“模糊”走向“有限清晰”。
3. 台湾民主成熟度
1996年总统直选后，台湾民主已历经多次政党轮替。主权在民的合法性远超PRC体制的“党控合法性”。
4. PRC体制瓶颈
PRC以“结党逻辑”建构的准国家体系，已遭遇经济、社会与国际关系的多重临界点。台湾模式对大陆具有强烈的政治示范效应。
5. 台海军事态势
PRC军力虽扩张，但实战与盟友支持不足；而台湾拥有地缘防御优势与高科技战略能力，美日同盟亦构成制衡力量。
6. 区域经济依存
台湾是全球半导体产业核心环节。无论中美，均难以绕过台湾科技链。经济共生在事实层面先于政治对立。
7. 全球民主共同体支持度
欧盟、G7、印太伙伴国逐渐提升对台关系。立陶宛、捷克、斯洛伐克等已率先突破外交禁区。台湾已成为全球民主链条中的一环。
8. 两岸民意基础
台湾年轻世代认同“ROC台湾”，不再接受“被并入大陆”。大陆内部虽受信息屏蔽，但民间对台湾模式的好奇与向往不断增长。
二、“灯”：八种可能解决方式
1. 维持现状（Status Quo Prolonged）
台海维持“不独不统”格局，以时间换空间。但风险是战略模糊逐渐失效。
2. ROC国际有限承认
更多国家与ROC台湾建立事实外交关系（如设代表处），承认其合法政权存在。
3. 双方互设办事处
ROC与PRC互设事实大使馆，以“事务性”形式建立沟通机制，降低军事风险。
4. ROC重返联合国
先以观察员身份参与，逐步争取恢复正式席位，强化国际法地位。
5. 中美同时承认 ROC
若美国率先承认ROC，PRC将被迫调整，甚至与ROC互相承认，开启“对等共生”的谈判。
6. 签署结束敌对关系协定
ROC与PRC通过国际见证签署“和平协议”，形成亚洲安全新架构的一部分。
7. 渐进式邦联（Confederation）探索
以“两个政权，共同治理某些跨域事务”为过渡方案，但须建立在平等互认基础上。
8. 双边共生体制创新（Symbiotic Polity）
ROC与PRC跳出传统“统一—独立”框架，基于“交互主体共生”原则，共同进入多元共生的新文明结构。
三、结语
“镜”是冷静观察，“灯”是前路照耀。
ROC台湾的现代国家转型，已经让2350万人民成为主权主体；而台海格局的演变，取决于世界主要力量能否正视这一事实。
在未来三到五年，ROC台湾的合法地位问题，极可能成为国际秩序重组的关键变量。
如何选择“镜”与“灯”，不仅决定台海的和平与战争，也关系到人类政治文明能否走向共生的新阶段。
### Appendix
Summary of the 2020 article *“Mirror and Lamp: Eight Observations and Eight Possible Solutions to the PRC & ROC Issue—My Perspective on Trends in the Taiwan Strait”*
#### I. “Mirror”: Eight Observations
1. **International Law Positioning**
The Taiwan issue is not merely a "domestic affair" but a legacy of the post-WWII international order. The *Cairo Declaration*, *Potsdam Proclamation*, *San Francisco Peace Treaty*, and *UN Charter* provide multiple interpretive frameworks for Taiwan’s status. Although the ROC lost its UN seat, its historical identity as a founding member has not been entirely erased.
2. **U.S.-China Relations Framework**
The Taiwan Strait issue remains a critical leverage point in U.S.-China rivalry. From the 1979 *U.S.-China Joint Communiqué* to the recent *Taipei Act*, U.S. policy toward Taiwan has shifted from "strategic ambiguity" to "limited clarity."
3. **Taiwan’s Democratic Maturity**
Since the 1996 direct presidential election, Taiwan’s democracy has undergone multiple party alternations. Its legitimacy, rooted in popular sovereignty, far surpasses the PRC’s "party-controlled legitimacy."
4. **PRC’s Systemic Bottlenecks**
The PRC’s quasi-state system, built on "party logic," faces multiple critical challenges in economy, society, and international relations. Taiwan’s model exerts a strong political demonstration effect on the mainland.
5. **Taiwan Strait Military Dynamics**
While the PRC’s military has expanded, it lacks combat experience and allied support. Taiwan holds a geostrategic defensive advantage and advanced technological capabilities, with the U.S.-Japan alliance providing a balancing force.
6. **Regional Economic Interdependence**
Taiwan is a core component of the global semiconductor industry. Neither the U.S. nor China can bypass Taiwan’s technological supply chain. Economic interdependence precedes political confrontation in practice.
7. **Support from the Global Democratic Community**
The EU, G7, and Indo-Pacific partners are increasingly enhancing relations with Taiwan. Lithuania, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia have broken diplomatic taboos. Taiwan has become a vital link in the global democratic chain.
8. **Cross-Strait Public Opinion**
Taiwan’s younger generation identifies with "ROC Taiwan" and rejects "integration into the mainland." Despite information censorship, curiosity and admiration for Taiwan’s model are growing among mainland citizens.
#### II. “Lamp”: Eight Possible Solutions
1. **Prolonged Status Quo**
Maintain the "neither independence nor unification" pattern to buy time, though the risk is that strategic ambiguity is losing efficacy.
2. **Limited International Recognition of ROC**
More countries establish de facto diplomatic relations with ROC Taiwan (e.g., through representative offices), acknowledging its legitimate regime.
3. **Mutual Establishment of Offices**
ROC and PRC set up de facto embassies in a "functional" form to establish communication mechanisms and reduce military risks.
4. **ROC’s Return to the UN**
Participate initially as an observer, gradually seeking to restore full membership to strengthen its international legal status.
5. **Simultaneous U.S. and PRC Recognition of ROC**
If the U.S. recognizes ROC first, the PRC may be forced to adjust, potentially leading to mutual recognition and "equal coexistence" negotiations.
6. **Signing an End to Hostilities Agreement**
ROC and PRC, with international witnesses, sign a "peace agreement" as part of a new Asian security framework.
7. **Gradual Confederation Exploration**
A transitional model of "two regimes, joint governance of certain cross-domain affairs," contingent on equal mutual recognition.
8. **Innovative Symbiotic Polity**
ROC and PRC transcend the traditional "unification-independence" framework, embracing a principle of "mutual主体共生" to enter a new structure of diverse coexistence.
#### III. Conclusion
The "Mirror" reflects冷静观察; the "Lamp" illuminates the path forward.
ROC Taiwan’s modern national transformation has made its 23.5 million people the sovereign主体. The evolution of the Taiwan Strait situation hinges on whether major global powers can face this reality.
In the next three to five years, the issue of ROC Taiwan’s legitimate status is likely to become a critical variable in the restructuring of the international order.
The choice of "Mirror" or "Lamp" will not only determine peace or war in the Taiwan Strait but also whether human political civilization can advance toward a new stage of coexistence.
---
This translation retains the original tone, structure, and intent of the text while ensuring clarity and natural flow in English. If you need further analysis, specific sections expanded, or visualizations (e.g., a timeline chart of Taiwan’s democratic milestones), please let me know!