三大战略支点与俄乌战争的终局
三大战略支点与俄乌战争的终局
The Three Strategic Fulcrums and the Endgame of the Russia-Ukraine War
——从能源断流到AI驱动的全球新秩序
— From Energy Cutoff to an AI-Driven Global Order
钱宏（Archer Hong Qian）
By Archer Hong Qian
作为政治继续的现代战争，打的无非化石能源、人口资源和经济支撑（支援）三大支柱的优劣比较。那么，俄乌战争中，在能源、人口和经济总量上都处于劣势，而且是被攻击方，如何变被动为主动，并取得胜利，终结战争，实现长久和平呢？
As the continuation of politics, modern war ultimately tests the relative strengths of three pillars: fossil energy, human resources, and economic support. In the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine has been disadvantaged in all three—energy, population, and total economic volume—while also being the side under attack. How then can it turn passivity into initiative, achieve victory, end the war, and secure lasting peace?
这是现代热战的一个新问题！也是每一个“慈故能勇且珍爱生命”的人们，在世界冲突层出不穷的当下，都绕不过去的问题！
This is a new problem for modern hot wars! And it is also a question that no one who “acts courageously out of compassion and cherishes life” can avoid in today’s world of incessant conflicts.
一、战争走到临界点
I. The War Reaches a Critical Point
2025年夏末，经过川普忍辱负重的努力，从阿拉斯加“破冰”和白宫“交易”成功，俄罗斯与乌克兰“和平协议”可能成为现实，然而，就几乎就在和平曙光乍现的同时，俄乌战场再度升级。而且，双方已不再局限于前线阵地的攻防，而是直接瞄准对方的炼油厂、输油管道、电厂与关键工业设施。
In late summer 2025, after Trump’s arduous efforts—the “icebreaking” in Alaska and the “deal” at the White House—a Russia-Ukraine “peace agreement” seemed within reach. Yet just as dawn of peace appeared, the battlefield escalated again. Both sides moved beyond positional offensives and defenses, directly targeting each other’s refineries, pipelines, power plants, and critical industrial facilities.
这一变化，标志着战争已由“持久消耗”转向“战略根基”的对撞。
This shift signaled that the war had moved from “prolonged attrition” to a direct clash at the level of “strategic foundations.”
这倒是给关注平息战争的人们一个启示：如果说前期的战事更多体现为前线拉锯与国际援助的较量，那么现在的趋势则昭示，谁能动摇对方国家机器的“燃料根基”，谁就能抢占终结战争的主动权。
This offers an insight for those seeking to end the conflict: if the earlier phase was defined by trench warfare and international aid, the current trend suggests that whoever can shake the “fuel foundation” of the other’s national machine will seize the initiative in ending the war.
在这种格局下，任何“谈判”的空间，必然要以新的战略性打击与制衡为前提。而对美国及其盟友而言，如何既加快战争的终结，又避免拖入无休止的消耗战，特别将为具有人口优势的乌克兰降至最低点？答案，或许就在“三大战略支点”之中。
In this configuration, any “negotiation” must be predicated on new strategic strikes and counterbalances. For the U.S. and its allies, the question is how to accelerate the war’s end while avoiding endless attrition—especially reducing Ukraine’s disadvantage in manpower. The answer may lie in the “three strategic fulcrums.”
二、第一支点：釜底抽薪的能源打击
II. First Fulcrum: Energy Strikes that Pull the Rug Out
历史上，从二战盟军对德国鲁尔工业区的轰炸，到海湾战争中美军对伊拉克发电厂与油库的“瘫痪打击”，战争的终结往往取决于能否掐住敌国的能源动脉。
History shows—from Allied bombings of Germany’s Ruhr industrial zone in WWII to U.S. strikes on Iraq’s power plants and oil depots during the Gulf War—that the end of wars often hinges on whether the enemy’s energy arteries can be cut.
俄罗斯的战争机器，本质上是“石油与天然气驱动”的机器：
Russia’s war machine is essentially “driven by oil and gas”:
财政依赖： 俄联邦预算超过40%来自能源出口。
Fiscal dependence: Over 40% of the Russian Federation’s budget comes from energy exports.
国际杠杆： 石油与天然气是其维系印度等买家的关键筹码。
International leverage: Oil and gas are key bargaining chips for maintaining buyers like India.
社会稳定： 能源出口换来的资金，支撑着莫斯科、圣彼得堡等中心城市的福利与消费。
Social stability: The revenues from energy exports sustain welfare and consumption in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.
因此，若通过无人机、远程导弹与“火烈鸟战术”?，持续摧毁俄石油炼化、输油管道、油轮、港口枢纽，就等于切断了俄罗斯的战争血液。
Therefore, by continuously destroying Russia’s oil refineries, pipelines, tankers, and port hubs with drones, long-range missiles, and the so-called “Flamingo Tactics”?, one would be cutting off the very blood of Russia’s war machine.
当能源不再可卖，当民生“奶酪”被撼动，那些在莫斯科、圣彼得堡大城市里享受稳定与繁华的俄罗斯人，就必然会真正“痛定思痛”，从内部施压要求结束战争。
When energy can no longer be sold and the public’s “cheese” is shaken, the Russians enjoying prosperity in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg will inevitably feel the pain and press from within for an end to the war.
与此相比，美国是否追加“二级制裁”反而显得次要——因为最致命的制裁，是俄社会自身的“能源断供”。
Compared with this, whether the U.S. adds “secondary sanctions” becomes secondary—for the most lethal sanction is Russia’s own “energy cutoff.”
三、第二支点：人形AI军团的优先发展
III. Second Fulcrum: Prioritizing the Development of Humanoid AI Forces
乌克兰要在一千多公里战线保持充足兵员，是当前乌克兰无法克服的难题，也是乌克兰人开始厌战的根本原因。如果说能源打击是“釜底抽薪”，那么人形AI军团就是“非对称性加速”。
Maintaining adequate troops across a frontline stretching over a thousand kilometers is Ukraine’s insurmountable problem and the root cause of war-weariness. If energy strikes “pull the rug out,” then humanoid AI forces represent “asymmetric acceleration.”
俄乌战争已经展现出无人机、电子战、网络战的巨大潜能，但这仅仅是AI军事化的开端。未来的关键，在于：
The war has already demonstrated the immense potential of drones, electronic warfare, and cyberwarfare, but this is only the beginning of AI militarization. The key ahead lies in:
无人机群： 大规模、低成本、可自组织协同，成为空地战场的“蜂群战力”。
Drone swarms: large-scale, low-cost, self-organizing formations that dominate land and air.智能防御系统： 通过AI算法优化防空反导，大幅降低成本与反应时间。
Smart defense systems: AI-optimized air defense and missile interception, lowering costs and response times.智能指挥平台： 利用大数据与AI决策，压缩“战略—战术”反应链条，从而在战场上形成时间优势。
Intelligent command platforms: leveraging big data and AI decision-making to compress the strategy-to-tactics response chain, thereby gaining a temporal edge in battle.
川普若能帮助乌克兰加速度推动AI军团的集中研发与快速部署，乌克兰将在战场上形成“非对称加速”：以较低代价逼迫俄罗斯陷入战力失衡。
If Trump can accelerate Ukraine’s concentrated R&D and rapid deployment of AI forces, Ukraine will achieve “asymmetric acceleration” on the battlefield: forcing Russia into combat imbalance at lower cost.
历史上，正是技术的跨越——如美国在二战中率先研发雷达与核武——改变了大国战争的格局。人形AI军团，可能是今天的“曼哈顿计划”。
History shows that technological leaps—such as America’s early development of radar and nuclear weapons in WWII—reshaped great power wars. Today, humanoid AI armies may be the new “Manhattan Project.”
四、第三支点：全方位的经济围堵
IV. Third Fulcrum: Comprehensive Economic Encirclement
最后一个支点，是经济制裁的系统化。
The final fulcrum is the systematization of economic sanctions.
过去的制裁往往局限于能源与金融，但现在应当全面升级：
Past sanctions often focused on energy and finance, but now they must be fully upgraded:
科技禁运： 切断半导体、AI芯片、航空零部件的供应链。
Technology embargo: cutting off supply chains for semiconductors, AI chips, and aerospace components.物流保险： 封堵俄油轮、运输网络，使其出口无法正常结算。
Logistics insurance: blocking Russian tankers and transport networks, disrupting their export settlements.文化交流： 冻结学术、体育、金融合作，让俄罗斯彻底被边缘化。
Cultural exchange: freezing academic, sports, and financial collaborations, pushing Russia into isolation.
在此格局下，即便没有美国“二级制裁”的施压，印度等国也会自动降低与俄合作的意愿——因为硬碰川普的成本，远高于购买俄廉价石油的收益。
In this configuration, even without U.S. “secondary sanctions,” countries like India will naturally reduce cooperation with Russia—because confronting Trump costs far more than buying cheap Russian oil.
这是一种“软硬兼施”的战略：在军事上削弱，在经济上封锁，在文化上孤立，从而让俄罗斯政权进入多维度的内生压力场。
This is a strategy of “hard and soft combined”: weakening militarily, blocking economically, and isolating culturally—thereby pushing the Russian regime into a multidimensional internal pressure field.
五、结语：战争的终结与秩序的重建
V. Conclusion: Ending the War and Rebuilding Order
三大战略支点——能源釜底抽薪、AI军团加速、经济全面围堵——构成了一条完整的路径：既加快俄乌战争的终结，又为美国主导的世界秩序重建赢得主动权。
The three strategic fulcrums—energy cutoff, accelerated AI forces, and comprehensive economic encirclement—form a complete path: accelerating the war’s end while giving the U.S. the initiative in rebuilding world order.
珍爱生命的川普若能驾驭这一战略，就有可能实现双重目标：
If Trump, who cherishes life, can master this strategy, he may achieve two goals:
结束“无休止的战争”，兑现“和平总统”的承诺；
Ending “endless wars” and fulfilling his promise as a “Peace President.”同时避免“和平上瘾”的陷阱，以力量和智慧塑造真正的和平。
At the same time avoiding the trap of “peace addiction,” shaping genuine peace through strength and wisdom.
正如摩西未能进入迦南，却能展望出埃及的以色列人走向应许之地；川普若能以“三大战略支点”为杠杆，或许同样能推动世界走向新的秩序。
Just as Moses did not enter Canaan but enabled the Israelites to move toward the Promised Land, Trump—using the “three strategic fulcrums” as levers—may likewise push the world toward a new order.
未来的世界，不应是霸权与冲突的循环，而是以自律与创新为基石的“全球共生”。而这，正是21世纪美国真正的历史使命。
The world ahead should not be a cycle of hegemony and conflict, but one of “global symbiosis” built on self-discipline and innovation. And this is truly America’s historic mission in the 21st century.
孞烎
2025年8月22日于 Richmond
Xin Yin
Richmond, August 22, 2025
? “火烈鸟战术” (Flamingo Tactics)：指通过持续、灵活、游击式的空中与远程袭扰，让对手陷入长期焦灼与心理消耗。