Trump Must Beware of the “Peace President Addiction”

川普当自警“和平总统上瘾”

——终结乌克兰战争，必须动俄罗斯中心城市的“奶酪”！

— To End the Ukraine War, Russia’s Urban “Cheese” Must Be Touched

By Archer Hong Qian

写下这个标题时，我首先想到的是“勇气”！这世道，做正确的事，需要勇气，解决这破碎世界的问题，更需要勇气！

When writing this title, the first thing that came to my mind was “Courage”! In this world, doing the right thing requires courage, and solving the problems of this broken world requires even greater courage!

勇气，是一种担当的气概，勇气是在面对群体反对、羞耻、丑闻、气馁或个人损失时正确行事的能力。勇气使人在必要事情上直面阻碍和危险，决心做或者拒绝一些不愉快或危险的事情。在决定积极行动的情况下，勇气是为了正义的实施，为了对危险情况的掌控或为了实现价值而克服阻碍和危险；在决定拒绝行动的情况下，勇气是为了拒绝/抵抗一些行为，比如不正义，毫无价值或不利于健康，如在压力下对某些事或方式“上瘾”等，都需要这两个勇气——都与自身的不利和必要的牺牲相联系。

Courage is the spirit of responsibility. It is the ability to act rightly in the face of group opposition, shame, scandal, discouragement, or personal loss. Courage enables one to confront obstacles and dangers in matters of necessity, deciding either to do or to refuse certain unpleasant or dangerous things. In cases of positive action, courage means overcoming obstacles and dangers for the sake of justice, for gaining mastery over perilous situations, or for realizing value. In cases of refusal, courage means resisting or rejecting certain behaviors—such as injustice, futility, or harm to health. Even resisting certain forms of “addiction” under pressure requires this courage. Both kinds of courage are tied to personal disadvantage and necessary sacrifice.

所以，老子说“慈故能勇”；柏拉图和亚里士多德将勇敢、节制、正义和智慧（或审慎）视为四种基本美德，而勇敢在这四者中排在首位；托马斯·阿奎那认为“勇气”是一种美德，只能以基督徒美德的存在为证：信仰，希望和怜悯；温斯顿·丘吉尔表示“勇气是人类首要的品质，因为是它保证了所有其他的品质。”

Thus, Laozi said, “Because of compassion, one can be courageous.” Plato and Aristotle regarded courage, temperance, justice, and wisdom (or prudence) as the four cardinal virtues, placing courage at the forefront. Thomas Aquinas considered courage a virtue that could only be attested by the Christian virtues of faith, hope, and charity. And Winston Churchill declared, “Courage is the foremost of human qualities, because it is the quality that guarantees all others.”

一、再起的战火与全球格局

I. Renewed Flames of War and the Global Landscape

就在8月19日我评论《俄乌战争直接间接当事方的尴尬与出路——从阿拉斯加“破冰”和白宫“交易”到可能的“和平协议”》之际，战场仍然显露出某种“谈判的可能性”。然而三天后，俄乌却再度大规模交火，而且直接瞄准对方的战略工厂与能源基地。
On August 19, I commented in “The Dilemma and the Way Out for the Direct and Indirect Parties in the Russia-Ukraine War—From the Alaska ‘Icebreaking’ and White House ‘Deal’ to a Possible ‘Peace Agreement’”, noting that the battlefield still revealed some “possibility of negotiation.” Yet only three days later, Russia and Ukraine engaged in another round of large-scale clashes, this time directly targeting each other’s strategic factories and energy infrastructure.

这意味着战争的烈度正在进入新阶段——从战场消耗战转向对国家根基的战略打击。
This indicates that the war is entering a new phase—from attritional battles on the frontlines to strategic strikes at the very foundations of national survival.

• 如果俄罗斯炼油、输油与能源设施遭到全面破坏，而乌克兰仍能依靠西方外援维持军需，双方的力量对比就会迅速逆转。

• If Russia’s refining, oil transport, and energy facilities are comprehensively destroyed while Ukraine continues to rely on Western aid to sustain its military needs, the balance of power could be quickly reversed.

• 对俄罗斯而言，更大的风险在于：一旦印度等买家因供应链中断而减少进口，资金流枯竭，国内财政随之紧缩，其大城市居民的“奶酪”将被直接动摇。

• For Russia, the greater risk lies here: once buyers such as India reduce imports due to supply chain disruptions, financial flows will dry up, state revenues will contract, and the “cheese” of Russia’s urban middle class will be directly threatened.

• 那时，普京政权的社会基础才会真正震荡。

• At that point, the social foundation of the Putin regime could be severely shaken.

这与美国是否追加“二级制裁”相比，效果可能更加直接与致命。俄乌双方互毁能源根基，实际上可能成为“外力难以替代的内生杠杆”。
Compared to whether the United States adds “secondary sanctions,” this mutual destruction of energy infrastructures may prove a far more direct and fatal mechanism—an internal lever that external forces cannot substitute.

问题是：当局势发展到这种程度时，普京是否还能以“领衔者”身份进入和平谈判？抑或只能在摇摇欲坠的权力中，眼睁睁看着谈判主导权旁落他人之手？
The real question is: when the situation escalates to such an extent, will Putin still be able to enter peace talks as a “leading actor”? Or will he, amid faltering power, have to watch helplessly as the initiative in negotiations slips into the hands of others?

历史往往冷酷，政治人物能否抓住自己的最后机遇，从来取决于他们是否能在关键节点做出清醒抉择。
History is often cruel: whether political leaders can seize their last opportunity depends on their ability to make sober decisions at decisive junctures.

二、川普的二十个承诺与世界秩序

II. Trump’s Twenty Promises and the World Order

与俄罗斯困局形成对照的，是美国第47任总统川普已经和即将兑现的二十个核心承诺。
In contrast to Russia’s predicament, America’s 47th President, Donald J. Trump, has begun and will continue fulfilling his twenty core promises.

这二十项承诺不仅是美国国内“MAGA”的复兴纲领，也同时蕴含着“MAHA”（Make America Humanity’s Anchor）的国际示范效应。它们不仅关乎美国经济与社会秩序的再平衡，更可能在全球化3.0的进程中，成为重建世界秩序的基石。

These twenty commitments are not only a domestic “MAGA” blueprint for American renewal, but also carry the potential for a global demonstration effect—“MAHA” (Make America Humanity’s Anchor). They concern not only the rebalancing of America’s economy and social order, but may also, within the process of Globalization 3.0, serve as the cornerstone for rebuilding world order.

然而，承诺的兑现并非没有风险。越是大规模的政治工程，越容易陷入某种“路径依赖的上瘾”——即在某个政策上尝到甜头之后，反复强化，直至僵化，甚至失去整体平衡。
Yet the fulfillment of such promises is not without risks. The larger the political project, the greater the danger of falling into a “path-dependent addiction”—that is, reinforcing and overusing a once-successful approach until it becomes rigid, unbalanced, and even counterproductive.

历史的伟人并非以一时的成功而著名，而是能否在巨大成功之后保持清醒与节制。
Great leaders in history are not remembered solely for their moments of triumph, but for whether they could maintain sobriety and restraint in the wake of great success.

三、摩西的启示

III. The Lesson of Moses

摩西在上帝的指引下，带领以色列人走出埃及奴役，经历十灾与红海分开的奇迹，踏上应许之地的征途。
Under God’s guidance, Moses led the Israelites out of Egyptian bondage, through the miracles of the ten plagues and the parting of the Red Sea, and onto the journey toward the Promised Land (Exodus 14:21–22).

然而，这段旅程不仅是救赎的开始，更是纪律与约束的考验。摩西本人因一次对上帝指令的违背，终究未能亲身进入迦南，只能远远望见。
Yet this journey was not only the beginning of deliverance, but also a test of discipline and obedience. Moses himself, because of one act of disobedience to God’s command, was ultimately forbidden from entering Canaan, and could only gaze upon it from afar (Deuteronomy 34:4–5).

这故事告诉我们：即使是“神选之人”，也必须警惕因骄傲与惯性而陷入误区。对川普而言，同样如此。当他以“人民授权”的姿态兑现二十个承诺时，他需要时刻提醒自己：成功之后的危险，往往比失败更大。

This story teaches us that even a “chosen one” must beware of falling into error through pride and inertia. For Trump, the same holds true: as he fulfills his twenty promises under the mandate of the people, he must constantly remind himself that the dangers following success are often greater than those accompanying failure.

四、五个不可上瘾

IV. The Five Addictions to Avoid

我提出“五个不可上瘾”，以摩西的故事为寓言，作为川普总统未来执政需要特别注意的五个方面：
I propose “Five Addictions to Avoid,” using Moses’ story as an allegory—five areas in which President Trump must exercise particular caution during his term:

1. 誡“推特治国上瘾”
   Warning Against Addiction to Twitter Governance

• 社交媒体是沟通的工具，却不应成为政策的舞台。过度依赖推特式政治，会使治理碎片化、情绪化，与“批示治国”“文件治国”之蔽有一比。

• Social media is a tool of communication, but should not be the stage for policymaking. Over-reliance on “Twitter politics” risks fragmenting governance and inflaming emotional impulses—similar to the pitfalls of “rule by directives” or “rule by memos.”

1. 誡“追溯犯罪上瘾”
   Warning Against Addiction to Retribution

• 打击腐败与清算对手固然必要，但如果陷入报复逻辑，容易导致国家政治走向循环报复的泥潭。

• Fighting corruption and holding opponents accountable is necessary, but if politics falls into a cycle of retribution, it can drag the nation into a quagmire of endless vendettas.

1. 誡“打击非移上瘾”
   Warning Against Addiction to Cracking Down on Illegal Immigration

• 非法移民需要规范治理，但美国同时需要移民的活力。把治理简化为“排斥”而非“整合”，会损害国家的长远结构。

• Illegal immigration must be governed, yet America also depends on the vitality brought by immigrants. If governance is reduced to exclusion rather than integration, it will undermine the long-term fabric of the nation.

1. 誡“关税纠偏上瘾”
   Warning Against Addiction to Tariff Adjustments

• 关税是纠正贸易不公的重要手段，但它只能作为杠杆，而非永久的制度性药方。过度使用将导致外部反制，削弱美国长期竞争力。

• Tariffs are an important tool to correct unfair trade, but they are a lever, not a permanent remedy. Overuse will invite retaliation and weaken America’s long-term competitiveness.

1. 誡“和平总统上瘾”
   Warning Against Addiction to Being a Peace President

• 川普倡导“没有无休止的战争”，这正中美国民意。然而“和平上瘾”也可能带来另一种危险：为避免冲突而不敢坚守原则，从而丧失战略主动。真正的和平，不是退让的结果，而是担当的勇气与智慧的平衡（钱宏：《大格局、大使命、大智慧——写于Trump当选第47任美国总统当日》http://symbiosism.com.cn/8893.html）。

• Trump’s call for “no endless wars” resonates with American public opinion. Yet a “peace addiction” carries another danger: avoiding conflict at all costs may result in the loss of strategic initiative. Genuine peace is not the product of retreat, but of a balance of strength and wisdom(Archer Hong Qian, “Grand Vision, Grand Mission, Grand Wisdom—Written on the Day Trump Was Elected as the 47th President of the United States,” http://symbiosism.com.cn/8893.html).

  .

五、结语：山巅之城的再出发

V. Conclusion: A New Departure for the “City on a Hill”

如果川普能够在“五个不可上瘾”的自律下，逐步兑现二十项承诺，他不仅将带领美国回到“山巅之城”的精神源头，也可能为人类开辟新的政治文明之路。
If Trump can maintain self-discipline through these “Five Addictions to Avoid” while steadily fulfilling his twenty promises, he will not only guide America back to the spiritual source of the “City on a Hill”, but also open the path toward a new political civilization for humanity.

摩西未能进入迦南，却让以色列民族真正走向了应许之地；川普如果能在辉煌成就之后仍然保持警醒，他也将超越自己的一时功业，成为真正意义上的“世界秩序重建者”。
Moses did not enter Canaan himself, but led his people to the threshold of the Promised Land. Likewise, if Trump can remain vigilant even amid dazzling achievements, he may transcend his own momentary triumphs to become a true re-founder of world order.

未来的全球化，不应是霸权与冲突的循环，而是基于生命自组织的交互主体共生。美国如果能以节制与自律，引领这一秩序，就能在历史的长河中留下真正的永恒印记。
The globalization of the future should not be a cycle of hegemony and conflict, but one of interactive symbiosis among self-organizing life systems. If America can lead this order with restraint and discipline, it will leave a truly enduring mark on the course of history.

孞烎
2025年8月22晨于Richmond
Xin Yin
Richmond, Morning of August 22, 2025

 See Reuters and Financial Times reports, late August 2025, on Russia and Ukraine’s mutual strikes on each other’s refineries and energy infrastructure.

[2]: 北约与欧盟在2025年夏季追加对乌军事与财政援助，确保其能源与军需供应的韧性。

NATO and the EU expanded military and financial support for Ukraine in the summer of 2025, ensuring resilience in its energy and military supplies.

[3]: 川普的20个核心承诺可参见其2024竞选纲领文件以及多次公开演讲。

Trump’s twenty core promises can be found in his 2024 campaign platform and multiple public speeches.

[4]: 《圣经·出埃及记》14:21-22，记载摩西分开红海的场景。

The Bible, Exodus 14:21–22, describing the parting of the Red Sea.

[5]: 《申命记》34:4-5，记载摩西因违背神命而不得进入迦南。

Deuteronomy 34:4–5, recording Moses’ exclusion from entering Canaan due to disobedience.

[6]: 可参见2018–2020年美中贸易战的关税循环效应研究。

See studies on the cyclical effects of U.S.-China tariff conflicts during the 2018–2020 trade war.

[7]: 皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）多次民调显示，美国民众普遍反对“无休止的战争”，支持撤军与减少海外军事介入。

Pew Research Center surveys show that Americans broadly oppose “endless wars” and favor troop withdrawals and reduced overseas military involvement.

[8]: “山巅之城”概念源自1630年清教徒领袖约翰·温思罗普（John Winthrop）的布道，后成为美国文明理想的核心隐喻。

The “City on a Hill” concept originates from John Winthrop’s 1630 sermon, later becoming a core metaphor for American civilizational ideals.

[9]:钱宏主编《全球共生：化解冲突重建世界秩序的中国学派》（2018），提出“交互主体共生”作为全球化3.0的哲学与政治范式。

Editor-in-Chief Qian Hong  Global Symbiosis: The Chinese School of Conflict Resolution and World Order Reconstruction (2018), which proposes “interactive symbiosis” as the philosophical and political paradigm of Globalization 3.0.