俄乌战争直接间接当事方的尴尬与出路——从阿拉斯加“破冰”和白宫
俄乌战争直接间接当事方的尴尬与出路
The Embarrassment and the Way Out for the Direct and Indirect Parties in the Russia–Ukraine War
——从阿拉斯加“破冰”和白宫"交易"到可能的“和平恊议”
From the “Ice-Breaking” in Alaska and the “Deal-Making” at the White House to a Possible “Peace Agreement”
钱 宏（Archer Hong Qian）
大家都熟知普鲁士军事理论家卡尔·冯·克劳塞维茨在《战争论》中的名言：“战争是政治的延续。”其核心含义是：战争并非脱离政治的孤立行为，而是政治通过另一种手段的继续。
但今日世界，“人（生命）-AI（理性工具）-TRUST（政经组织）”三元结构交互条件下，战争是人类难以承受之重。
和平与新的国际格局，或许，以完全不同于“巴黎和会”（1919）、“雅尔塔会议”（1945）的方式到来。这就是：基于生命自组织连接平衡与再平衡的交互主体共生（Intersubjective Symbioism）哲学思维的“交易艺术”和“恊商”，才是新政治的延续。
一、朋友的观点
一位国际政治学者朋友对我说：
“普京手里拿着乌克兰20%的土地，理论上，他可以换任何东西，包括泽连斯基的总统位置。但如果还能换来国际舆论的支持与叫好，那只能说明文明的堕落。这也就是为什么即便川普若取得成功，仍然要批评他的原因。”
二、我的回应
我回答说：普京不仅掌握了乌克兰20%的土地，还掳掠了超过35,000名乌克兰儿童。
这不仅仅是人道灾难，更是俄罗斯一贯的帝国手法——通过掳掠儿童、屠杀和人口替换，来完成长期的征服与同化。当年占领土耳其的克里米亚、清朝失去的远东，皆是如此。今日乌东与克里米亚的内乱与族群撕裂，正是这种历史手法所留下的复杂遗产。
三、现实的困境
从现实来看：
一方面，要制止杀戮，寻求和平，就必须投入巨大资源（所谓“大炮一响，黄金万两”）；
另一方面，仍需维护《威斯伐利亚和约》（1648）以来确立的“主权在民”的民族国家世界秩序，以及《世界人权宣言》（1948）的文明底线。
战争已持续三年半，早已进入相持消耗、打打谈谈的阶段。此时：
对泽连斯基而言，进退维谷；
对普京而言，骑虎难下；
对欧盟及国际社会而言，难以承受长期消耗；
对川普或其他潜在调解者而言，左右为难。
四方无论如何选择，都尴尬至极。局势呼唤着一种“我不入地狱，谁入地狱”的大担当、大智慧与大悲悯。
怎么办？
这就是我提出解决俄乌战争实现和平的“第三条道路”（《俄乌第三和平方略：五项基本原则、十一条和平框架——交互主体共生视野下的地缘政治出路》http://symbiosism.com.cn/10506.html）之后，最近又作《五个不可上瘾——川普总统或当以摩西为誡？》（http://symbiosism.com.cn/10610.html）和《结束乌克兰战争需要帮助俄罗斯破解帝国梦魇的纠缠!》两文的原因（ http://symbiosism.com.cn/10624.html）！
看来有必要重申一下“第三条道路”。
四、第三条道路：五项基本原则、十一条和平框架（时空意间背景）
在此背景下，我提出“第三条道路”——以交互主体共生视野，摆脱帝国逻辑，走向和平共生。
（一）五项基本原则
乌克兰作为一个有效治理的主权独立国家，其国家地位不可动摇、不可剥夺；
生命安全优先于领土幻觉，人的尊严高于任何历史叙事和利益诉求；
“小即是美”“社区大于国家”的多元独立共生体制，是中东欧与俄罗斯缓冲区与未来世界和平的共生法则；
俄罗斯的“安全感”，应被纳入共生协商机制，但不得以毁灭本国人民和他国存在为代价；
欧美不以彻底摧毁俄罗斯，而以“技术—经济繁荣—人文共生网络”引导其脱离帝国思维，重新融入全球文明秩序。
（二）十一条和平框架
实现美国总统50天内停火建议，100天内完成俄乌双方有序撤出乌东与库尔斯克地区，建立和谈平台；
和平谈判由乌克兰与俄罗斯主谈，欧盟、英国参与，美国主导主持；
乌东四州（顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、扎波罗热、赫尔松）在全民公投、国际监督下，建立“小即是美”原则下的独立国家，脱离双方控制，采取中立政策；
加里宁格勒州（俄罗斯飞地）在区域公投下转型为“柯尼斯堡共和国”，不再受俄联邦直接控制；
克里米亚维持现状由俄罗斯托管，但国际承认其原则上为“独立待定”，由未来乌俄共商解决主权归属；
俄罗斯须归还在战争中掳走的所有乌克兰儿童、平民及其财物资产；
欧洲设立联合维和部队，由英国与欧盟共同领导，派驻至乌东四州与柯尼斯堡地区，监督其安全建国进程；
确立乌克兰中、西部“东仪天主教”文化与乌克兰民族传统基础，俄罗斯及国际社会承认，以基辅为首都，领土完整主权独立的“新乌克兰”共和国；
俄罗斯用于战争所被冻结资产一部分将以战后重建资金形式补偿新乌克兰，欧美同时取消对俄罗斯的全面经济制裁；
新乌克兰共和国是否加入欧盟与北约为其主权选择，俄罗斯不得干预，同时，欧盟与北约对俄罗斯开放谈判大门；
和平协议签署，邀请以下7国作为地缘安全共生体见证人：白俄罗斯、波兰、立陶宛、芬兰、罗马尼亚、摩尔多瓦、土耳其。
（三）战略意义简析
维护乌克兰国家主体性：确认其独立主权与治理合法性，打破任何“去国化”幻想；
终结帝国逻辑：将领土争议转化为中立小国网络，实现历史负担的和平“孵化”与文明转译；
构建共生安全带：围绕俄欧之间的地理张力，建立若干中立地带作为文明缓冲器，避免俄罗斯与北约直接对撞；
孞態网（Minds Network）AI-TRUST基础设施：通过互联网、物联网、孞態网“三网融合”，在变革性技术伦理支撑下，实现“人（生命）—AI（工具理性）—TRUST（组织）”交互主体共生（Intersubjective Symbiosism）。短期内，也能辅助欧洲维和部队完成停火监督、透明治理、公投信任与战争创伤疗愈；
全球共生范式试验场：首次在欧陆危机中尝试以“交互主体共生”公约，替代旧秩序的“主客二元对立统一”支配逻辑，让任何统治世界的帝国政治企图都成为不可能（康德《论永久和平》）。
（此方案最初提出于2024年3月，2025年7月在温哥华更新）
五、给旁观者的一句话
至于那些既不出力、又只会在旁边看戏起哄的人，如今最好的选择就是：闭嘴。
少一点幸灾乐祸，多一点责任的克制，也算积点“嘴德”。
我的意思是，大家要发言，就把自己放进来，设身处地，犹如《罗马书》所说，成为拥有非凡使命的平凡人，传福音 · Gospel Sharing
言语 · 行动 · 神迹
Words · Works · Wonders.
平凡的人，活出超我的非凡使命
Ordinary people, living out an extraordinary mission beyond themselves.
从家庭到社区，从社区到世界——
From family to community, from Community to the World—
在生命交互主体共生的连结中
within the intersubjective symbiosism of life，
传播创世者的福音与爱之智慧（Amorsophia），
we spread the Creator’s Gospel and Amorsophia (the wisdom of love),
而不仅仅是智慧之爱（Philosophy）
not merely Philosophy (the love of wisdom).
孞 烎
2025年8月17-18日晨 于温哥华
The Embarrassment and the Way Out for the Direct and Indirect Parties in the Russia–Ukraine War
From the “Ice-Breaking” in Alaska and the “Deal-Making” at the White House to a Possible “Peace Agreement”
Archer Hong Qian
It is well known that Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote in On War: “War is the continuation of politics.” The core meaning is that war is not an isolated act detached from politics, but a continuation of politics by other means.
Yet in today’s world, under the interactive conditions of the triadic structure of Human (Life) – AI (Rational Tool) – TRUST (Political-Economic Organization), war has become a burden humanity can no longer bear.
Peace and a new international order may arrive in a way entirely different from the Paris Peace Conference (1919) or the Yalta Conference (1945). That is: through the “art of transaction” and “negotiation” grounded in the philosophy of Intersubjective Symbiosism, based on life’s self-organizing balance and rebalancing. This is the true continuation of politics in our era.
A Friend’s View
An international political scholar friend once said to me:
“Putin is holding 20% of Ukraine’s land. Theoretically, he could trade it for anything—even Zelensky’s presidency. But if such a trade could also earn him international applause, it would only signify the collapse of civilization. That is why, even if Trump were to succeed, there would still be cause to criticize him.”
My Response
I replied: Putin not only controls 20% of Ukraine’s territory, but he has also abducted more than 35,000 Ukrainian children.
This is not merely a humanitarian catastrophe but reflects Russia’s long-standing imperial method—using child abduction, massacre, and population replacement to achieve long-term conquest and assimilation. The same tactics were seen in the occupation of Crimea from the Ottoman Turks, and in the loss of the Far East from the Qing Dynasty. Today’s conflicts and ethnic divisions in eastern Ukraine and Crimea are the complex legacy of this imperial method.
III. The Dilemma of Reality
From a realistic perspective:
On the one hand, stopping the killing and seeking peace requires immense resources (as the saying goes, “When cannons roar, gold flows like water”);
On the other hand, it remains necessary to uphold the Westphalian order (1648) affirming popular sovereignty, as well as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948), which represents the bottom line of civilization.
The war has dragged on for three and a half years, entering a stage of attrition, stalemate, and intermittent negotiations. At this point:
For Zelensky, it is a dilemma of no way forward and no way back;
For Putin, it is riding a tiger and unable to dismount;
For the EU and the international community, the long-term cost is unbearable;
For Trump or other potential mediators, it is an impossible balancing act.
Whichever way the four sides move, it is awkward and unsustainable.
The situation calls for great responsibility, great wisdom, and great compassion—the kind that says: “If I do not go to hell, who will?”
So, what is to be done?
This is why I first proposed a “third path” for resolving the Russia–Ukraine war and achieving peace (The Third Roadmap to Peace in the Russia–Ukraine War: Five Basic Principles and Eleven Framework Points—A Geopolitical Solution from the Perspective of Intersubjective Symbiosism, http://symbiosism.com.cn/10506.html). More recently, I elaborated in Five Addictions to Avoid—Should President Trump Take Moses as a Warning? (http://symbiosism.com.cn/10610.html) and Ending the Ukraine War Requires Helping Russia Break Free from the Nightmare of Empire! (http://symbiosism.com.cn/10624.html).
It now seems necessary to reaffirm this “third path.”
The Third Path: Five Basic Principles and Eleven Framework Points (Against the Background of Spatio-Temporal Interspace)
(A) Five Basic Principles
Ukraine, as a sovereign and effectively governed independent nation, must have its national status upheld and cannot be undermined or stripped away;
The safety of human life takes precedence over territorial illusions, and human dignity stands higher than any historical narrative or material interest;
A pluralistic, independent symbiotic order, grounded in the principle that “small is beautiful” and “communities are greater than states,” is the law of symbiosis for Eastern Europe, Russia’s buffer zones, and the future of world peace;
Russia’s “need for security” should be included in symbiotic negotiations, but not at the price of annihilating its own people or another nation’s existence;
The West should not seek the total destruction of Russia but should guide it away from imperial thinking—through a network of technology, economic prosperity, and cultural symbiosis—back into the global civilizational order.
(B) Eleven Framework Points for Peace
Implement the U.S. President’s proposal for a ceasefire within 50 days, with an orderly withdrawal from eastern Ukraine and the Kursk region within 100 days, creating a platform for negotiations;
Peace talks to be directly negotiated between Ukraine and Russia, with the EU and the UK participating, and the U.S. serving as primary facilitator;
The four eastern Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) to establish independent states under the “small is beautiful” principle, confirmed by referendums under international supervision, adopting neutral policies;
Kaliningrad (a Russian exclave) to transition via regional referendum into the “Republic of K?nigsberg,” free from direct Russian federal control;
Crimea to remain under Russian trusteeship, but internationally recognized as “independent pending resolution,” with sovereignty to be jointly negotiated by Ukraine and Russia in the future;
Russia must return all Ukrainian children, civilians, and property seized during the war;
Europe to establish a joint peacekeeping force, led by the UK and the EU, stationed in the four eastern Ukrainian states and K?nigsberg to oversee their secure nation-building process;
Recognize and affirm the Eastern Catholic tradition and Ukrainian national heritage in central and western Ukraine, establishing Kyiv as the capital of a territorially intact, sovereign “New Ukraine” Republic;
A portion of Russia’s frozen wartime assets to be used as reconstruction funds for New Ukraine, in exchange for the lifting of Western economic sanctions;
New Ukraine’s choice to join the EU and NATO shall rest solely with its sovereign decision, free from Russian interference; the EU and NATO shall simultaneously open the door for negotiations with Russia;
The peace agreement to be witnessed by seven regional states as guarantors of symbiotic security: Belarus, Poland, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Moldova, and Turkey.
(C) Strategic Significance
Preserving Ukraine’s national subjectivity: confirming its sovereignty and legitimacy, breaking any “de-nationalization” illusions;
Ending imperial logic: transforming territorial disputes into a network of neutral small states, achieving peaceful “incubation” and civilizational translation of historical burdens;
Building a symbiotic security belt: creating neutral buffer zones to defuse the geopolitical tension between Russia and Europe, preventing direct clashes with NATO;
Minds Network (孞態网) AI-TRUST infrastructure: through the integration of the Internet, Internet of Things, and the Minds Network, supported by transformative techno-ethics, enabling intersubjective symbiosism among Human (Life), AI (Rational Tool), and TRUST (Organization). In the short term, it can also assist European peacekeepers in ceasefire monitoring, transparent governance, referendum trust, and war trauma healing;
A global symbiosis experiment: for the first time in a European crisis, attempting to replace the old order’s “subject-object dualism” with a covenant of intersubjective symbiosism, making any imperial ambition of world domination impossible (cf. Immanuel Kant’s Perpetual Peace).
(This proposal was first advanced in March 2024 and updated in Vancouver in July 2025.)
A Word to the Onlookers
As for those who contribute nothing but merely watch from the sidelines and jeer, the best choice now is: shut up.
A little less schadenfreude, a little more restraint of responsibility—that, too, is a kind of “virtue of the tongue.”
What I mean is: if you must speak, put yourself into the situation—stand in the shoes of those who suffer. As the Book of Romans teaches, become an ordinary person with an extraordinary mission:
Gospel Sharing · 传福音
Words · Works · Wonders
Ordinary people, living out an extraordinary mission beyond themselves.
From family to community, from Community to the World—
within the intersubjective symbiosism of life,
we spread the Creator’s Gospel and Amorsophia (the wisdom of love),
not merely Philosophy (the love of wisdom).
言语 · 行动 · 神迹
平凡的人，活出超我的非凡使命。
从家庭到社区，从社区到世界——
在生命交互主体共生的连结中，
传播创世者的福音与爱之智慧（Amorsophia），
而不仅仅是智慧之爱（Philosophy）。
孞 烎 (Archer Hong Qian)
Morning of August 17–18, 2025 · Vancouver