Reflection on the election results (revised)

发表时间：2025-05-01 15:46

Liberals win again! Given the dismal record of the Liberal government, the victory of Liberals is often attributed to the Trump factor and Carney’s credibility. Is it so? We will look into this further.

First, is Trump to blame for the Liberal victory?

Canada possesses a great amount of natural resources, from oil to hydro power, from fertile soil to endless forest. It should be the richest country in the world by far. It should be able to support a vast amount of people. But instead, its fertility rate has dropped to a dismal level of 1.3, with GDP per capita stagnant for more than a decade. As with any system that performs greatly under its potential, someone, this time Trump, attempts to snatch Canada at a bargain price. Understandably, many Canadians are furious about Trump’s advance. But few are willing to reflect on why Canada is sinking into such a sorry state.

Canada is selling oil to US much cheaper than the international market prices. US profits enormously from this massive discount. Canada had a chance to sell its oil to the international market by building the Northern Gateway Pipeline. But the pipeline project was sabotaged by the Liberal government, with the support from most institutions and population in Canada. Even today, few Canadians are willing to reflect on their fervent support for the policies that hurt Canada so much.

Canada is one of the coldest countries in the world. Yet Canada is the hottest place in denouncing the evil of global warming. It is not because Canadians don’t understand the benefit of warming. Many Canadians, called snowbirds, routinely spend their winter in warm southern US or Mexico. Every year, about one hundred thousand Canadians move to warm US for good. Many politicians, such as Justin Trudeau, vacation in tropical paradises frequently. When exposed, Trudeau defended his frequent trip to warm places as a Canadian way of life. Canadians, more than most others, long for warmer climate.

Yet Canada is controlled by the global elites who want to grab its vast amount resources, mostly carbon based fossil fuels, at low cost. To grab resources at low cost, they first need to lower the value of resources by labelling carbon as pollution. Since Canada has the most abundant resources, it becomes the target of most propagandas from the global elites. Canadians, as a result, are most thoroughly brain washed.

To change our sorry state, we first have to think independently. Carbon dioxide is the essential nutrients for all plants. More carbon dioxide makes the Earth a greener place. Carbon dioxide, at 0.04% in the atmosphere, is a precious resource for all life. It is not a pollution.

Geologically, we are at the quaternary, one of the coldest periods in Earth’s history. It is the coldness, not the warmness, that harm most life, including human beings. Most people, including crusaders against global warming, prefer to live in warm places, such as Hollywood.

It is the Liberals under the tutelage of Trudeau and Carney that sink Canada to such a sorry state. Trump merely exposed this fact. To blame Trump is like to kill the messenger for the message.

Second, what about Carney’s credibility?

Canada fared better than US in 2008 recession. Many attribute it to a better financial system in Canada and the leadership of Carney. If so, Canada would fare better than US since then. However, US economy has grown significantly since 2008 while Canadian economy has stagnated. Why?

Around 2008, oil price rose significantly, approaching 150 dollar per barrel. US was the largest oil importer then, importing about 10 million barrel oil a day. Canada, on the other hand, was a large oil exporter, exporting about 2 million barrel oil a day. The rise of oil price hurt US greatly, and benefitted Canada greatly. That was why Canada fared better than US at that time.

Since 2008, US aggressively developed the hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology. Its oil output increases from 5 million barrel per day in 2008 to 13 million barrel per day in 2023. Canada’s oil output also increases significantly, from 2.7 million barrel per day in 2008 to 5 million barrel per day in 2023. Its export increases from 2 million barrel oil a day to 3.4 million barrel a day. However, Canadian government blocked the construction of Northern Gateway pipeline. It is very difficult for Canadian oil to reach the international market. Most Canadian oil is sold to US at a deep discount. This is a major source of US prosperity and Canadian poverty.

Why does Canadian government adopt policies that harm Canada? There are at least two reasons. First, weak countries are deeply influenced by strong countries. Canada is deeply influenced by US. Northern Gateway pipeline will benefit Canada but harm US. Hence, Northern Gateway pipeline is blocked. Second, carbon tax is a redistribution of wealth from the majority to the powerful minority, inside and outside Canada. Since the powerful minority demines the fate of people, Canadian government officials will adopt policies benefiting the powerful minority, not the majority of people in Canada.

Those who actively promote carbon tax have been handsomely rewarded by the powerful. Mark Carney is such an example. Many feel that Mark Carney is highly respected and hence is highly qualified to be the prime minister. But he is highly respected by the high society precisely because he has done so much for the high society and has screwed up the ordinary Canadians along the way.

Why voters choose Liberals for another term?

Historically, Liberals and Conservatives in Canada are in power 3 to 2 (90 years vs. 60 years). By comparison, Democratics and Republicans in US are presidents 1 to 1 (96 years vs. 96 years). Why do Liberals dominate Canada while two parties in US are roughly equal? There could be many reasons. The difference in resource ownership might play a significant role.

In US, resources underground are owned by the private landowners. In Canada, resources underground are owned by the governments. Canadian governments also own large tracts of crown lands. Overall, Canadian governments own a great amount of resources, compared with US governments. Hence, Canadian governments control a great amount of wealth, and hence control a great amount of power. Since Liberal Party aggressively increases the size and role of government, many people are naturally associated with the Liberal in one way or another. Liberals may have a terrible record running the economy, but Liberals have a terrific record distributing wealth to the government and government related professions. Given the sharp increase of housing prices engineered by the Liberal government, the wealth of the majority of Canadians actually increases tremendously under Liberal leadership. Only the younger people, the true locomotives of the economic and social activities, suffer.

So many Canadians, especially the wealthy and the old, benefit from the Liberal rule. This is why it is so easy for many voters to forget about the terrible performance of the Liberal Party on economics and find any excuse to vote for the Liberal.