Looking ahead to the AI storm（双语）展望人工智能风暴
Looking ahead to the AI storm
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As the rate of profit drops with increased worker's productivity because of AI, the capitalists may tend to lower down the wage level to compensate for their profit losses. They may have a long in the making tendency to pass on losses to the state and dictate lower executive and corporative taxes. Namely, all means for increased profits are always the most important in their wish lists. Losses are always out of the question.
They may dictate the state, which is their main ruling tool, to bear the burden of the BUI (Basic Universal Income) program supported by the public taxes but not theirs. This program is one of the several means to alleviate suffering from the unbearable unemployment problem by the proletarian. But, after the public tax funds have exhausted, how to stop the system from jumping into the unemployment cliff?
There will be possibly a way out of the dilemma of supporting AI or maintaining the going rate of profit. The key is to take on the second globalization, after the first one has failed because of hegemonism.
There are hundreds of millions of workers in both the third world and the reserve army in the first world who need and want to strive for economic opportunities in industrialization and globalization prior to and affected by, respectively, the AI era. These abandoned working classes may have much lower labor productivity than the AI-inspired first-world working classes, but then their total working hour would be much longer hence their uncompensated surplus labor hour are also much longer and the profit much larger than those created by the working classes in the advanced capitalist countries in the AI era.
The much higher rate of profit exploited from these productive forces can easily compensate the losses of profit in the first world due to AI. This new capitalist strategy will need a different strategic planning from that of the first globalization, namely, the expected second globalization can be based neither on colonialism nor on hegemony. Investments in those "backward" regions of pre-AI industrialization should be as clean as practical. Obviously, the above-mentioned BUI funding shortage can be alleviated or compensated to some degree.
But the capitalism is full of internal contradictions. For an example, the second globalization would easily invite the crisis of over-production and possibly other problems such as shortage of capital.
There seems to be no feasible solution to the AI problems. But then why the big capitals are determined to gamble their way out of the quagmire? The answer must be that competition and monopoly exist at the same time. On the one hand, the AI storm is the product of capitalist competitions that force them to invest in AI, even though no advantages and benefits can be guaranteed, each wants to win the battle of competitions to establish their own AI as the AI market standards and to seize the power to monopolize prices.
After the whole capitalist world enters the AI era, however, the world will fall into a totally “creative destruction" (Joseph Schumpeter (1942)) stage.
Because of its lightening speed of the "techno feudal" (Yanis Varoufakis 2024) development, the future of an era has already emerged.
A race to the bottom by using AI can no longer be dismissed as hearsay. For an example, a typical AI data center in the U.S. will deploy some half of a million GPU chips which, together with other chips will consume mega-watt-hour electromagnetic energy and thousands or even millions of gallons of water for cooling in every day. As the global warming problem has deteriorated rapidly, because clean EM energy sources are difficult to come by, those AI data centers post a great proportion of the threat to communities.
"But what we're seeing from China is: That wasn't necessarily needed. We could do this on less energy, fewer chips, less footprint.
An optimistic environmentalist subgenre of speculative fiction, art, and design that envisions future life on Earth transformed using sustainable energy, close co-existence of human beings with nature, and progressive sociopolitical values."(https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-ben-buchanan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.104.H4_8.VAZbud3ciDiP&smid=url-share) "
The above-mentioned viewpoints about sustainability, co-existence and progressive sociopolitical values are questionable at the best and false at the worst. Nature's enormous energy such as the hydrogen based nuclear fusion energy generated inside the sun is limited to a trickle when sun's photons arrive on earth, as an example; all practical energy must be man-made whereas the AI industrialization consumes but does not produce. Now the realization of anti-climate-change, environmentalism, and clean power have become more problematical than before.
Because of AI in national security and the way capitalists organize their society by means of fake democracy and genuine ruling-class dictatorship, A.I. safety becomes a matter of life and death problem. When the worst happens, e.g., AI controls the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex or M.I.C.C., the Mutually Assured Destruction or M.A.D. will destroy the world as we know it.
As artificial intelligence and capitalism are incompatible, the only solution for survival of humanity is to overthrow all capitalist states in the world and to establish socialist states by means of world-wide proletarian revolutions.
Frederick Engels taught us in "Anti-Duehring,"(including: Part III: Socialism
Chapter 1: Historical.
Chapter 2: Theoretical.
Chapter 3: Production.
Chapter 4: Distribution.
Chapter 5: State, Family, Education.) 1894
[Translated by Emile Burns and Edited by C.P. Dutt, International Publishers Co., Inc., 1972; https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1877/anti-duhring/ch24.htm]
Part of Chapter 2 of III: Theoretical is extracted below:
"It is the compelling force of anarchy in the production of society at large that more and more completely turns the great majority of men into proletarians; and it is the masses of the proletariat again who will finally put an end to anarchy in production. It is the compelling force of anarchy in social production that turns the limitless perfectibility of machinery under modern industry into a compulsory law by which every individual industrial capitalist must perfect his machinery more and more, under penalty of ruin. But the perfecting of machinery is making human labor superfluous. If the introduction and increase of machinery means the displacement of millions of manuals by a few machine-workers, improvement in machinery means the displacement of more and more of the machine-workers themselves. It means, in the last instance, the production of a number of available wage-workers in excess of the average needs of capital, the formation of a complete industrial reserve army, as I called it in 1845, *9 available at the times when industry is working at high pressure, to be cast out upon the street when the inevitable crash comes, a constant dead-weight upon the limbs of the working class in its struggle for existence with capital, a regulator for the keeping of wages down to the low level that suits the interests of capital. Thus, it comes about, to quote Marx, that machinery becomes the most powerful weapon in the war of capital against the working class; that the instruments of labor constantly tear the means of subsistence out of the hands of the laborer; that the very product of the worker is turned into an instrument for his subjugation. Thus it comes about that the economizing of the instruments of labor becomes at the same time, from the outset, the most reckless waste of labor-power, and robbery based upon the normal conditions under which labor functions; that machinery, the most powerful instrument for shortening labor-time, becomes the most unfailing means for placing every moment of the laborer’s time and that of his family at the disposal of the capitalist for the purpose of expanding the value of his capital. Thus, it comes about that the overwork of some becomes the preliminary condition for the idleness of others, and that modern industry, which hunts after new consumers over the whole world, forces the consumption of the masses at home down to a starvation minimum, and in doing this destroys its own home market. “The law that always equilibrates the relative surplus-population, or industrial reserve army, to the extent and energy of accumulation, this law rivets the laborer to capital more firmly than the wedges of Vulcan did Prometheus to the rock. It establishes an accumulation of misery corresponding with accumulation of capital. Accumulation of wealth at one pole is, therefore, at the same time accumulation of misery, agony of toil, slavery, ignorance, brutality, mental degradation, at the opposite pole, i.e., on the side of the class that produces its own product in the form of capital” (Marx's Capital, p. 671.) And to expect any other division of the products from the capitalistic mode of production is the same as expecting the electrodes of a battery not to decompose acidulated water, not to liberate oxygen at the positive, hydrogen at the negative pole, so long as they relate to the battery.
"In these crises, the contradiction between socialized production and capitalist appropriation ends in a violent explosion. The circulation of commodities is, for the time being, stopped. Money, the means of circulation, becomes a hindrance to circulation. All the laws of production and circulation of commodities are turned upside down. The economic collision has reached its apogee. The mode of production is in rebellion against the mode of exchange, the productive forces are in rebellion against the mode of production which they have outgrown.
The fact that the socialized organization of production within the factory has developed so far that it has become incompatible with the anarchy of production in society, which exists side by side with and dominates it, is brought home to the capitalists themselves by the violent concentration of capital that occurs during crises, through the ruin of many large, and a still greater number of small, capitalists. The whole mechanism of the capitalist mode of production breaks down under the pressure of the productive forces, its own creations. It is no longer able to turn all this mass of means of production into capital. They lie fallow, and for that very reason the industrial reserve army must also lie fallow. Means of production, means of subsistence, available laborers, all the elements of production and of general wealth, are present in abundance. But “abundance becomes the source of distress and want” (Fourier), because it is the very thing that prevents the transformation of the means of production and subsistence into capital. For in capitalistic society the means of production can only function when they have undergone a preliminary transformation into capital, into the means of exploiting human labor-power. The necessity of this transformation into capital of the means of production and subsistence stands like a ghost between these and the workers. It alone prevents the coming together of the material and personal levers of production; it alone forbids the means of production to function, the workers to work and live. On the one hand, therefore, the capitalistic mode of production stands convicted of its own incapacity to further direct these productive forces. On the other, these productive forces themselves, with increasing energy, press forward to the removal of the existing contradiction, to the abolition of their quality as capital, to the practical recognition of their character as social productive forces.
"This rebellion of the productive forces, as they grow more and more powerful, against their quality as capital, this stronger and stronger command that their social character shall be recognized, forces the capitalist class itself to treat them more and more as social productive forces, so far as this is possible under capitalist conditions. The period of industrial high pressure, with its unbounded inflation of credit, not less than the crash itself, by the collapse of great capitalist establishments, tends to bring about that form of the socialization of great masses of means of production which we meet with in the different kinds of joint-stock companies. Many of these means of production and of communication are, from the outset, so colossal that, like the railways, they exclude all other forms of capitalistic exploitation. At a further stage of evolution this form also becomes insufficient: the official representative of capitalist society — the state — will ultimately have to *10 undertake the direction of production. This necessity for conversion into state property is felt first in the great institutions for intercourse and communication — the post office, the telegraphs, the railways.
"If the crises demonstrate the incapacity of the bourgeoisie for managing any longer modern productive forces, the transformation of the great establishments for production and distribution into joint-stock companies and state property shows how unnecessary the bourgeoisie are for that purpose. All the social functions of the capitalist are now performed by salaried employees. The capitalist has no further social function than that of pocketing dividends, tearing off coupons, and gambling on the Stock Exchange, where the different capitalists despoil one another of their capital. At first the capitalist mode of production forces out the workers. Now it forces out the capitalists, and reduces them, just as it reduced the workers, to the ranks of the surplus population, although not immediately into those of the industrial reserve army.
But the transformation, either into joint-stock companies, or into state ownership, does not do away with the capitalistic nature of the productive forces. In the joint-stock companies this is obvious. And the modern state, again, is only the organization that bourgeois society takes on to support the general external conditions of the capitalist mode of production against the encroachments as well of the workers as of individual capitalists. The modern state, no matter what its form, is essentially a capitalist machine, the state of the capitalists, the ideal personification of the total national capital. The more it proceeds to the taking over of productive forces, the more does it become the national capitalist, the more citizens do it exploit. The workers remain wage-workers — proletarians. The capitalist relation is not done away with. It is rather brought to a head. But, brought to a head, it topples over. State ownership of the productive forces is not the solution of the conflict, but concealed within it are the technical conditions that form the elements of that solution.
"With the seizing of the means of production by society production of commodities is done away with, and, simultaneously, the mastery of the product over the producer. Anarchy in social production is replaced by systematic, definite organization. The struggle for individual existence disappears. Then for the first time man, in a certain sense, is finally marked off from the rest of the animal kingdom, and emerges from mere animal conditions of existence into human ones. The whole sphere of the conditions of life which environ man, and which have hitherto ruled man, now comes under the dominion and control of man who for the first time becomes the real, conscious lord of nature because he has now become master of his own social organization. The laws of his own social action, hitherto standing face to face with man as laws of nature foreign to, and dominating him, will then be used with full understanding, and so mastered by him. Man's own social organization, hitherto confronting him as a necessity imposed by nature and history, now becomes the result of his own free action. The extraneous objective forces that have hitherto governed history pass under the control of man himself. Only from that time will man himself, with full consciousness, make his own history — only from that time will the social causes set in movement by him have, in the main and in a constantly growing measure, the results intended by him. It is the humanity's leap from the kingdom of necessity to the kingdom of freedom.
To accomplish this act of universal emancipation is the historical mission of the modern proletariat. To thoroughly comprehend the historical conditions and thus the very nature of this act, to impart to the now oppressed class a full knowledge of the conditions and of the meaning of the momentous act it is called upon to accomplish, this is the task of the theoretical expression of the proletarian movement, scientific socialism."
In summary, the AI storm is breeding a brand-new society which is much viable than the old one. And if proletarians of the world unite and struggle for the socialist revolution, their victory can no longer be denied. [Mark Wain 03/12/2025]
汉译
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展望人工智能风暴
由于人工智能导致工人生产率提高，利润率下降，资本家可能倾向于降低工资水平以弥补利润损失。他们可能早就有将损失转嫁给国家并要求降低经理阶层的税以及企业税的倾向。也就是说，所有增加利润的手段永远是他们愿望清单中最重要的。损失永远是不可能实现的。
他们可能会要求作为他们主要统治工具的国家承担由公共税收而不是由他们支持的BUI（基本全民收入）计划的负担。该计划是减轻无产阶级因难以忍受的失业问题而遭受的痛苦的几种手段之一。但是，在公共税收资金耗尽之后，如何阻止制度跳入失业悬崖？
支持人工智能或维持现行利润率的困境可能会有出路。关键是在第一次全球化因霸权主义而失败后，进行第二次全球化。
第三世界有数亿工人，第一世界的后备军也需要和希望在人工智能时代之前和之后的工业化和全球化中争取经济机会。这些被抛弃的工人阶级的劳动生产率可能比受到人工智能启发的第一世界工人阶级低得多，但他们的总工作时间会更长，因此他们贡献的无偿剩余劳动时间也会更长，利润也会比人工智能时代的发达资本主义国家的工人阶级创造的利润大得多。
从这些生产力中榨取的更高利润率可以很容易地弥补第一世界资本因人工智能而造成的利润损失。这种新的资本主义战略将需要与第一次全球化采取不同的战略规划，即预期的第二次全球化既不能建立在殖民主义上，也不能建立在霸权主义上。对前人工智能工业化的“落后”地区的投资应该尽可能干净和切实可行。显然，上述BUI资金短缺可以得到一定程度的缓解或补偿。
但是资本主义本身充满矛盾，比如第二次全球化很容易引发生产过剩危机，甚至可能引发资本短缺等问题。
人工智能问题似乎没有可行的解决方案，但为什么大资本要冒险走进泥潭呢？答案是：竞争与垄断并存。一方面，人工智能风暴是资本主义竞争的产物，迫使它们投资人工智能，尽管不能保证任何优势和收益，但每个资本都想在竞争中获胜，以确立自己的人工智能成为人工智能市场标准，夺取垄断价格的权力。
而当整个资本主义世界进入人工智能时代后，世界将陷入一个完全“创造性毁灭”的阶段（约瑟夫·熊彼特（1942））。
由于“技术封建制”（Yanis Varoufakis 2024）发展的闪电速度，一个时代的未来已经出现。
利用人工智能进行竞相竞争已不再是道听途说。例如，美国一个典型的人工智能数据中心将部署大约五十万个 GPU 芯片，这些芯片与其他芯片一起每天将消耗兆瓦时的电磁能和数千甚至数百万加仑的冷却水。随着全球变暖问题迅速恶化，由于清洁的电磁能源难以获得，这些人工智能数据中心对社区的威胁占很大一部分。
“但我们从中国看到的是：这不一定是必要的。我们可以用更少的能源、更少的芯片、更少的足迹来实现这一点。
乐观的环保主义份子流派，是科幻小说、艺术和设计的一部分，它设想未来地球上的生活将通过使用可持续能源、人类与自然的密切共存以及进步的社会政治价值观而改变。”（https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-ben-buchanan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.104.H4_8.VAZbud3ciDiP&smid=url-share）“
上述关于可持续性、共存和进步的社会政治价值观的观点，在最好的情况下是值得怀疑的，在最坏的情况下是错误的。大自然的巨大能量，例如太阳内部产生的氢基核聚变能量，当太阳的光子到达地球时，其能量被限制在极少部分；所有实际能量都必须是人造的，而人工智能工业化只会消耗，而不会生产。现在，反气候变化、环保主义和清洁能源的实现变得比以前更加困难。
因为人工智能影响了国家安全，资本家通过虚假的民主和真正的社会统治阶级独裁统治下，人工智能安全成为生死攸关的问题。当最坏的情况发生时，例如人工智能控制了军事 ·工业 ·国会综合体或 M.I.C.C.，相互保证毁灭或 M.A.D. 将摧毁我们所知的世界。
由于人工智能和资本主义是不相容的，人类生存的唯一解决方案是推翻世界上所有的资本主义国家，并通过世界范围的无产阶级革命建立社会主义国家。
弗里德里希·恩格斯在《反杜林论》中教导我们，（包括：第三部分：社会主义
第一章：历史。
第二章：理论。
第三章：生产。
第四章：分配。
第五章：国家、家庭、教育。）1894
[埃米尔·伯恩斯译，C.P. 编辑Dutt，国际出版公司，1972 年； https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1877/anti-duhring/ch24.htm]
将第三章第二部分即理论部分摘录如下：
“正是社会生产无政府状态的强制力量，越来越彻底地把大多数人变成了无产者；而最终结束生产无政府状态的又是无产阶级群众。正是社会生产无政府状态的强制力量，把现代工业下机器的无限完善性变成了一种强制性法律，每个工业资本家都必须越来越完善自己的机器，否则就会破产。但机器的完善使人类劳动变得多余。如果说机器的引进和增加意味着少数机器工人取代了数百万手工工人，那么机器的改进意味着越来越多的机器工人本身被取代。归根结底，这意味着生产出超过平均需要的大量可用雇佣工人资本的形成，形成一支完整的产业后备军（我在1845年这样称呼它），在工业高速运转的时候，随时待命，在不可避免的崩溃到来时，就会被抛到街头，成为工人阶级在同资本进行生存斗争时不断承受的沉重负担，成为将工资控制在符合资本利益的低水平的调节器。这样，用马克思的话来说，机器就成了资本反对工人阶级的最有力的武器；劳动资料不断从工人手中夺走生活资料；工人的产品本身就变成了奴役工人的工具。这样，劳动资料的节约从一开始就同时变成了对劳动力的最肆无忌惮的浪费，变成了对正常劳动条件的掠夺；机器是缩短劳动时间的最有力工具，它成为资本家为了增加资本价值而把工人及其家庭的每一分钟时间都支配下来的最可靠的手段。这样，一些人的过度劳作就成为另一些人懒惰的先决条件，而大工业在全世界寻找新的消费者，迫使国内群众的消费降到足以饿死的最低限度，从而破坏了它自己的国内市场。“这个规律总是使相对过剩人口或产业后备军与积累的规模和力量保持平衡，它把工人钉在资本上，比火神把普罗米修斯钉在岩石上还要牢不可破。它建立了与资本积累相适应的贫困积累。因此，财富在一极的积累，同时也意味着在另一极，即在以资本形式生产自己产品的阶级方面，贫困、辛劳的痛苦、奴役、无知、残暴和精神堕落的积累。”（马克思的《资本论》第671页）。而期待资本主义生产方式的产品有任何其他的分配，就如同期待电池的电极不分解酸化水，在正极不释放氧气，在负极不释放氢气，只要它们与电池相连。
“在这些危机中，社会化生产和资本主义占有之间的矛盾最终以剧烈的爆发而告终。商品流通暂时停止。货币，即流通手段，成为流通的障碍。商品生产和流通的一切规律都被颠倒了。经济冲突已达到顶峰。生产方式反抗交换方式，生产力反抗它们已经超越的生产方式。
工厂内部社会化生产组织已经发展到资本主义生产方式与与之并存并统治着它的社会生产无政府状态不相容，资本家们自己也通过危机期间资本的剧烈集中而意识到了这一点，危机期间许多大资本家和更多的小资本家破产了。资本主义生产方式的整个机制在它自己创造的生产力的压力下崩溃了。它再也不能把这一大批生产资料转化为资本了。它们处于闲置状态，正因为如此，产业后备军也必须处于闲置状态。生产资料、生活资料、可用的劳动力、生产要素和一般财富的一切要素都充足。但是“过剩成为贫困和匮乏的根源”（傅立叶），因为正是过剩阻碍了生产资料和生活资料转化为资本。因为在资本主义社会中，生产资料只有经过初步转化为资本，转化为剥削人类劳动力的手段，才能发挥作用。生产资料和生活资料必须转化为资本，这种必然性就像幽灵一样横亘在工人和生产资料之间。只有这种必然性才阻碍了生产资料和个人杠杆的结合；只有这种必然性才使生产资料无法发挥作用，使工人无法工作和生活。因此，一方面，资本主义生产方式被判定无力进一步指挥这些生产力。另一方面，这些生产力本身正以越来越大的能量，努力消除现有的矛盾，消除其资本性质，在实践中承认其作为社会生产力的性质。
“生产力日益强大，它们对资本属性的反抗，以及越来越强烈的要求承认其社会属性的命令，迫使资本家阶级本身在资本主义条件下尽可能地把它们越来越多地视为社会生产力。工业高峰时期，伴随着信贷的无限膨胀，以及资本主义大企业的倒闭，都倾向于导致大量生产资料的社会化形式，我们在各种股份公司中都遇到过这种情况。许多生产资料和交通工具从一开始就是如此庞大，以至于像铁路一样，它们排除了所有其他形式的资本主义剥削。在进一步的发展阶段，这种形式也变得不够充分：资本主义社会的官方代表——国家——最终将不得不承担生产的指导。这种转化为国家财产的必要性首先体现在大型交流和通讯机构——邮局、电报、铁路上。
“如果危机表明资产阶级再也无法管理现代生产力，那么，生产和分配的大机构转变为股份公司和国有资产则表明，资产阶级在这方面是多么不必要。资本家的一切社会职能现在都由领薪水的职员来履行。资本家除了捞取股息、撕掉息票和在交易所赌博（不同的资本家在交易所里相互掠夺自己的资本）之外，再没有其他的社会职能了。起初，资本主义生产方式把工人赶走。现在它又把资本家赶走，并把他们像对待工人一样，降为过剩人口，虽然不是立即降为产业后备军。
但是，无论是转变为股份公司，还是转变为国有资产，都不会消除生产力的资本主义性质。在股份公司中，这一点是显而易见的。现代国家，不过是资产阶级社会为了维护资本主义生产方式的一般外部条件，以反对工人和个别资本家的侵犯而采取的一种组织。现代国家，不管它的形式如何，本质上都是资本主义的机器，是资本家的国家，是总资本的理想化身。它越是着手夺取生产力，它就越是真正地成为总资本家，它剥削的公民就越多。工人仍然是雇佣工人——无产者。资本主义关系并没有消灭。相反，它已经达到了顶点。但是，它一到达顶点，就倒塌了。生产力的国家所有制并不是冲突的解决，隐藏在冲突中的是生产者的技术条件。这些构成了解决方案的要素。
“随着社会掌握生产资料，商品生产就被消灭了，同时产品对生产者的控制也随之消失。社会生产中的无政府状态被系统的、明确的组织所取代。个体生存的斗争消失了。然后，人类第一次在某种意义上最终与动物王国的其他部分区分开来，从单纯的动物生存条件转变为真正的人类生存条件。人类周围和迄今为止统治人类的整个生活条件领域现在都处于人的统治和控制之下，因为人现在已经成为自己社会组织的主人，所以人第一次成为自然的真正、自觉的主人。他自己的社会行动的规律，迄今为止作为自然规律与人面对面，对他来说是异己的，并且支配着他，到那时，他将充分理解并掌握这些规律。人类自己的社会组织，迄今为止作为自然和历史强加的必然性与他面对面，现在成为他自己自由行动的结果。迄今为止支配历史的外在客观力量都落入了人类自身的控制之下。只有从那时开始，人类自己才能充分自觉地创造自己的历史——只有从那时开始，人类所推动的社会原因才会在主要方面并且不断增长的程度上产生人类所期望的结果。这是人类从必然王国向自由王国的飞跃。
完成这一普遍解放行动是现代无产阶级的历史使命。彻底理解历史条件，从而理解这一行为的本质，让现在被压迫的阶级充分了解这一重大行为的条件和意义，这是无产阶级运动的理论表达，科学社会主义的任务。”
总之，人工智能风暴正在孕育一个比旧社会更有生命力的全新社会。只要全世界无产阶级团结起来，为社会主义革命而奋斗，他们的胜利就不容被否认。[Mark Wain 03/12/2025]