越南国运处上升态势

Vietnam’s Rising National Fortune

——基于亚当·斯密“繁荣三原素”与共生经济学的结构性观察

— A Structural Observation Based on Adam Smith’s “Threefold Peace” and Symbionomics

钱 宏Archer Hong Qian
2025年11月18日–22日 · Singapore → Tràng → Hạ Long Bay → Hanoi

本文从亚当·斯密的“三重和平”理论和共生经济学（Symbionomics）的视角出发，分析越南如何凭借“革新开放”（Đổi Mới）政策释放体制活力，通过有效承接中国制造业转移和发挥人口红利优势，推动国际贸易与旅游业蓬勃发展，从而使国家命运呈现上升态势。

引子：一点历史对比

1945年，美、英、中、苏四国接受日本天皇发布《大东亚战争终结之诏书》无条件投降后，盟軍最高統帥麦克阿瑟发布《一般命令第一号》，让中华民国代表盟军在台湾全境与越南北纬16度线以北地区受降。台湾由陈仪将军于10月25日在台北公会堂向安藤利吉受降；越南北部由卢汉将军于9月28日在河内向日军第38军受降。

两地随即走向截然不同的命运。台湾因接收后腐败、经济统制与文化隔阂导致治理失败，酿成1947年“二二八事件”（顺便说一句，当时毛泽东在延安发表“我们赞成台湾独立，我们赞成台湾自己成立一个自己所要求的国家。”演说）。随着国共内战失利，国民政府1949年迁台，两岸分治形成。1952年旧金山体系使日本放弃台湾主权却未明定归属，留下法理争议；但中华民国在台湾，“反攻大陆”和“解放台湾”均无果后，经“蒋经国—李登辉的宁静革命”（包括为228事件道歉），发展成亚洲重要的现代政治文明示范。

越南北部则因日本投降后的权力真空，被越盟（后发展为越南劳动党）迅速掌控。1946年中华民国与法国签署协定，将越北占领权交予法国，中国军队随即撤离，法越谈判破裂，引爆第一次印度支那战争，并延伸至后来的越南战争。1950年代，中国将北部湾夜莺岛（白龙尾岛）赠予越南，成为中越关系复杂性的历史注脚；1979年中越战争后，此事更被视为“覆水难收”。

几十年后，越南和ROC台湾两地再次重逢，却走出了截然不同但同样值得尊敬的两个现代化模式。

此次到越南实地游走，我看见了与年轻时看《琛姑娘的森林》和“自卫反击战”报告文学完全不同的另一个越南：经过1986年“革新开放”（Đổi Mới），休养生息近四十年的越南，已经是一个充满社会活力、体制结构合理、安宁祥和国运上升朝气蓬勃之地。

一、在越南，看见一个处于“国运上升期”的国家

当飞机从新加坡飞往越南，掠过海岸线与岛屿时，一种强烈的地理直觉就已浮现。抵达河内、顺着广袤的海岸线一路向东，再前往下龙湾时，这种感觉愈发强烈：

越南是一条沿海而生、面海而兴、随时代开放而不断向上生长的国家。

广达 3000 公里 的海岸线让越南拥抱外部世界，而非封闭自身；

下龙湾的喀斯特山海地貌如同宇宙折叠般奇幻，海天之间呈现一种和平而安祥的呼吸；

岘港、芽庄、富国岛这些城市不再只是地理名词，而是世界游客的朝圣地；

在古城区、酒店、餐馆、海边，你能看到肤色各异的游客交织在一起，无论是欧美背包客、日韩家庭，还是印度游客与东盟旅人，都自然融入越南的节奏。

这种和平安祥的自然风光，也映照着越南社会稳定、治安良好、年轻人热情好客上。特别是越南年轻人的性格令人印象深刻：

眼神明亮

作风勤勉

对国际游客友善

既不卑不亢，也没有功利性

既自豪又谦逊

这种气质，是国家上升的重要文化指标。

二、斯密的洞见：国家繁荣的三大基石

早在1755年，亚当·斯密就发现国家繁荣三原素。他说：

“除了和平、便利的税收，以及过得去的司法行政（peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice）之外，把一个落后国家变成繁荣的国家，就不再需要别的什么了。”

斯密的古典经济学思想与当代共生经济学（Symbionomics）思维方式，完全契合——和平是尊重生命自组织连接动態平衡的交互主体共生过程（Peace is the intersubjective symbiotic process that respects the dynamic balance of life's self-organizing connections）！

第一是和平（个体社群的和平：交换与信任）；

第二是和平（社会层的和平：分工与制度秩序）；

第三还是和平（国关系关系的和平：贸易和友谊）。

三重和平促成市场、竞争、自由、恊作、创新、原富、国富、共襄幸福，赎福共生。为什么？因为三重和平，使人们可以：专注生产与交换，而不必耗费生命处理内斗、暴政、任意征敛或司法恐惧。

在共生经济学（Symbionomics）看来，斯密的“三重和平”不是静态制度，而是：

尊重生命自组织连接动态平衡的“交互主体共生”（Intersubjective Symbiosism）过程，从而提供国家繁荣三大保障：

可预测性（peace）

激励结构（easy taxes）

安全性（tolerable justice）

若以此为“国家健康的三大生命体征”，越南过去 40 年的上升正是从这里开始被看懂。

越南走向国运上升态势，是三重和平成功在地化的结果。

三、第一重和平：个体与社群的和平——交换自由、信任生态与日常生活中的自组织

越南的国运复苏，从“革新开放”（Đổi Mới）开始。
这场改革的本质不是意识形态调整，而是：

承认个体、承认市场、承认交换、承认活力。

越南大量释放了个体层面的生命力：

路边摊与咖啡馆

家庭旅馆与小企业

创业者与中小企业主

农村手工业与城市服务业

这些不是国家命令出来，而是人民自己生长出来的。

和平稳定的日常生活，为自由交换提供了“真实场景”。
这里的“第一重和平”并不是抽象，而是：

夜市中摊贩对游客毫不戒备的微笑

小店老板主动提供公平价格

青年愿意讲英语、帮助指路

没有压抑、没有敌意、没有冷漠

越南的上升，从人开始，从微小的交易开始，从“彼此之间的和平感”开始。

这是越南经济活力的细胞，是国运的最底层结构。

四、第二重和平：社会制度的和平——分工秩序、税制可预期与“过得去的行政效率”

越南的一党政治结构具有“分工合作”特点：

党总书记、国家主席、政府总理、国会主席——四位一体的分工合作制。

与个人独裁不同，这种结构带来：

政策连续性

行政执行力一致

招商引资高度可预测性

斯密所谓的“轻税与可接受的司法行政”在越南实现为：

基本清晰的税制

有效率的产业园审批

对外资的配套一致性

司法虽不完美，但可预期、可操作

这足以使全球资本放心投资。

于是越南得以嵌入全球分工体系：

承接中国制造业外溢

发展电子、纺织、鞋业、芯片封测

建立本地供应链

外商直接投资（FDI）年年增长

中国沿海省份的制造业向越南转移，越南用制度稳定性与劳动力承接力接住了历史机遇。

制度的“可预测性”与人口的“可调度性”，构成越南结构性崛起的第二重和平。

五、第三重和平：国际关系的和平——贸易、友谊与旅游文明的共同形成

越南的外交策略，被称为“竹外交”：

不选边

不对抗

多元友好

贸易优先

稳定融入国际秩序

成果包括：

CPTPP 成员国

RCEP 成员国

与欧盟 Free Trade Agreement

2025 年率先与美国达成亚洲双边贸易协议（甚至日本当时都未做到）

这让越南形成稳定外部环境，使和平成为经济增长的最大外部红利。

更引人注目的是越南的国际旅游文明：

下龙湾

海云岭

芽庄

岘港

富国岛

河江高原（UNESCO全球地质公园）

同文岩石高原地质公园

这些自然景观因为和平、安全、热情好客才能吸引数百万欧美游客。

越南与欧美有特殊历史渊源：

法殖民时代留下大量法国建筑与文化痕迹

美越战争的历史阴影，反而转化为“美国–越南民间往来与投资热潮”

800 万海外越侨（主要在美国、法国、德国）构成越南全球连结的桥梁

因此越南的第三重和平不仅是政府之间的关系，更是：

人民之间的友谊

游客之间的互动

文化之间的互通

历史之间的互相理解

走在越南景区，你能看到不同肤色的人种和平共处，彼此微笑，说明文化心理层的和平已自然形成。

这是真正意义上的第三重和平。

六、共生经济学视角：越南上升的“结构性共生引擎”

共生经济学认为：
国家的繁荣来自“主体—主体间的结构性互动”，而非单一政策。

越南上升来自两个关键的共生引擎：

引擎一：承接中国制造业外溢——最大结构性获益者

中美贸易摩擦

供应链“去风险化”

全球制造业重构

这些结构力量并非越南制定，而是越南恰好处在正确的位置：
化解全球化2.0矛盾 → 顺应全球化3.0分工重组。

大量投资涌入越南，创造产业共生。

引擎二：人口红利——越南的“生命资源”

越南一亿人口，平均年龄约 32 岁。
这是中国、日本、韩国、泰国都不再拥有的“年轻国家红利”。

年轻、勤奋、愿意学习、对外开放。

人口红利与制造业转移形成“结构性协同作用”，构成越南未来三十年的增长资源。

七、结语：以三重和平为基础的“共襄幸福、赎福共生”

越南为何上升？
归根结底是因为它在结构上完成了：

个体层的和平（交换与信任）

制度层的和平（分工与可预测性）

国际层的和平（贸易与友谊）

和平带来安全，安全带来投资，投资带来分工，分工带来创新，创新带来国运的上升。

越南的故事证明：

和平不是软弱，而是国家最硬的基础设施。当一个国家尊重生命自组织的交互主体共生过程，它就会走向原富、国富与幸福。

越南的国运正在上升，其轨迹值得整个亚洲与世界重新理解。

Vietnam’s Rising National Fortune

— A Structural Observation Based on Adam Smith’s “Threefold Peace” and Symbionomics

Archer Hong Qian
November 18–22, 2025 · Singapore → Tràng → Hạ Long Bay → Hanoi

越南国运处上升态势——基于亚当·斯密“繁荣三原素”与共生经济学…

Introduction: A Historical Contrast

In 1945, following Japan’s unconditional surrender and the proclamation of the Imperial Rescript on the Termination of the Greater East Asia War, General Douglas MacArthur issued General Order No. 1, assigning the Republic of China (ROC) to accept the Japanese surrender in Taiwan and in northern Vietnam above the 16th parallel.
On October 25, 1945, General Chen Yi accepted the surrender in Taipei; on September 28, General Lu Han accepted Japan’s surrender in Hanoi.

From this single historical pivot, Taiwan and northern Vietnam soon diverged along dramatically different paths:

Taiwan suffered governance failure under corruption, economic controls, and cultural alienation, culminating in the February 28 Incident of 1947 (notably, Mao Zedong publicly declared in Yan’an, “We support Taiwan independence; we support the Taiwanese people establishing the state they desire.”). After the Nationalist defeat in the Chinese Civil War and the government’s retreat to Taiwan in 1949, and following the San Francisco System of 1952 that left Taiwan’s legal status unresolved, Taiwan eventually underwent the “Silent Revolution” under Chiang Ching-kuo and Lee Teng-hui, becoming a leading model of modern political civilization in Asia.

Northern Vietnam, by contrast, fell into a post-war power vacuum quickly filled by the Viet Minh (later the Workers’ Party of Vietnam). The ROC transferred administrative authority back to France in 1946 and withdrew. Negotiations collapsed, triggering the First Indochina War, followed by the Vietnam War. China’s transfer of Nightingale Island (Bailongwei Island) in the 1950s later became a symbol of the complexity—and irreversibility—of Sino-Vietnamese relations, especially after the 1979 border war.

Decades later, Vietnam and Taiwan have each re-emerged as distinctive and respectable modernization models.

Traveling through Vietnam today—from Hanoi to Tràng and across the karst seascapes of Hạ Long Bay—I found a Vietnam entirely unlike the one portrayed in the wartime literature of my youth.
Nearly forty years after the Đổi Mới reforms of 1986, Vietnam is now vibrant, socially stable, institutionally coherent, and clearly moving upward in its national trajectory.

I. Encountering a Country in Its “Rising Fortune Phase”

Flying from Singapore toward Vietnam, passing over coastlines and archipelagos, one immediately senses a geographical truth:

Vietnam is a nation that grows by facing the sea—formed by the coast, opened by history, and elevated by openness.

This intuition only deepens upon arrival:

Its 3,000-kilometer coastline naturally orients Vietnam toward the world.

Hạ Long Bay’s karst formations resemble cosmic folds—quiet, harmonious, and breathtaking.

Cities like Đà Nẵng, Nha Trang, and Phú Quốc are no longer remote names but global tourist destinations.

In old quarters, cafés, hotels, and along beaches, tourists of every complexion mix naturally—Western backpackers, Japanese and Korean families, Indian holidaymakers, and Southeast Asian travelers.

Such serene landscapes are matched by social stability, good public security, and strikingly warm hospitality—especially among Vietnam’s young people, whose characteristics are unmistakable:

Bright, confident eyes

Hard-working attitude

Genuine friendliness toward foreigners

Neither servile nor opportunistic

Proud yet humble

This national temperament is itself a key indicator of rising national fortune.

II. Adam Smith’s Insight: The Three Pillars of National Prosperity

As early as 1755, Adam Smith identified the three essentials of national prosperity:

“Peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice.”

Why do these matter?

Because they provide:

Predictability (peace)

Incentive structure (easy taxes)

Security (tolerable justice)

These allow people to focus on production and exchange rather than internal conflict, arbitrary rule, or predatory governance.

Smith’s classical economics aligns perfectly with the ethics of Symbionomics:

Peace is the intersubjective symbiotic process that respects the dynamic balance of life’s self-organizing connections.

Thus, Smith’s “threefold peace” can be structurally understood as:

Peace among individuals and communities (exchange and trust)

Peace in social institutions (division of labor and administrative order)

Peace among nations (trade and friendship)

When these three levels of peace are realized, they generate:

Markets

Competition

Freedom

Cooperation

Innovation

Original wealth

National prosperity

Shared well-being

And ultimately, what Symbionomics terms “co-flourishing and redeemed flourishing” (共襄幸福，赎福共生).

Vietnam’s forty-year rise becomes intelligible precisely through this framework.

III. First Peace: Individual & Communal Peace —

Freedom of Exchange, Trust Ecology, and Daily-Life Self-Organization

Vietnam’s upward trajectory began with the Đổi Mới reforms of 1986.
The essence of Đổi Mới was not ideological modification but:

Recognizing the individual

Recognizing markets

Recognizing exchange

Recognizing vitality

This unleashed enormous grassroots energy:

Street vendors and cafés

Family guesthouses and micro-enterprises

Small entrepreneurs and SMEs

Rural handicrafts and urban services

These did not come from state orders—they grew from the people themselves.

Daily peace and stability created a genuine environment for free exchange:

Smiles from night-market vendors

Fair pricing by small-shop owners

Young people helping tourists in English

No hostility, no fear, no oppression

Vietnam’s rise begins from human interaction, from the micro-level peace experienced in everyday exchanges.

This is the cellular foundation of Vietnam’s national vitality.

IV. Second Peace: Institutional Peace —

Division of Labor, Predictable Taxation, and “Tolerable Administrative Efficiency”

Vietnam’s one-party political structure operates through a four-leader division-of-function system:

General Secretary

State President

Prime Minister

National Assembly Chair

This structure avoids personalist dictatorship and ensures:

Policy continuity

Administrative consistency

Predictability for investors

Smith’s “easy taxes and tolerable justice” manifest in Vietnam as:

A generally clear tax regime

Efficient industrial-park administration

Consistent policy incentives for foreign investment

Judicial processes that, while imperfect, remain predictable and workable

This has made Vietnam a safe harbor for global capital.

As a result, Vietnam has embedded itself in the global division of labor:

Absorbing outsourced Chinese manufacturing

Expanding electronics, textiles, footwear, and chip packaging

Building local supply chains

Attracting ever-growing FDI

Institutional predictability + a young labor force = Vietnam’s second layer of structural peace.

V. Third Peace: International Peace —

Trade, Friendship, and the Formation of a Tourism Civilization

Vietnam’s diplomatic doctrine—“bamboo diplomacy”—is defined by:

Non-alignment

Non-confrontation

Multi-directional friendship

Trade-first pragmatism

Stable integration into the international order

Its achievements include:

CPTPP membership

RCEP membership

Free Trade Agreement with the EU

Becoming the first Asian country (even before Japan in 2025) to sign a reciprocal trade agreement with the United States under the Trump administration

This external peace has become Vietnam’s greatest economic dividend.

Equally important is Vietnam’s tourism civilization:

Hạ Long Bay

Hải Vân Pass

Nha Trang

Đà Nẵng

Phú Quốc

Hà Giang Plateau (UNESCO Global Geopark)

Đồng Văn Karst Plateau Geopark

These landscapes attract millions of Western tourists precisely because Vietnam is peaceful, safe, and hospitable.

Vietnam also maintains unique historical ties with Europe and the United States:

French colonial-era cultural imprints

U.S.–Vietnam post-war reconciliation leading to investment flows

A global Vietnamese diaspora of 8 million people, mainly in the U.S., France, and Germany

Thus, Vietnam’s third peace is not merely state-to-state relations but:

Peace among peoples

Peace among visitors

Cultural interconnectedness

Historical understanding

Tourist sites filled with diverse races smiling at one another show that cultural-psychological peace has already taken root.

This is peace in its fullest sense.

VI. The Symbionomic Perspective:

Vietnam’s Two “Structural Co-Symbiosis Engines”

Symbionomics posits that national prosperity arises from structural interactions among subjects, not from isolated policies.

Vietnam’s ascent is powered by two major co-symbiosis engines:

Engine 1: Absorption of Chinese Manufacturing —

The Greatest Structural Beneficiary

U.S.–China trade tensions

Global supply-chain “de-risking”

Reshoring and nearshoring pressures

Rising Chinese coastal labor costs

All pushed relocation toward Vietnam.

Vietnam did not design these forces—but it was positioned perfectly to absorb them, turning Globalization 2.0 tensions into Globalization 3.0 opportunities.

FDI inflows created an integrated industrial symbiosis.

Engine 2: Demographic Dividend —

Vietnam’s “Life-Resource Advantage”

With 100 million people and an average age of around 32, Vietnam possesses what China, Japan, Korea, and Thailand no longer have:
a young-nation advantage.

Young, hard-working, eager to learn, and globally open.

Demographic vitality + manufacturing relocation = long-term, compounding structural synergy.

VII. Conclusion:

Toward “Shared Happiness and Redeemed Flourishing” Through the Threefold Peace

Why is Vietnam rising?

Because it has structurally realized:

Peace among individuals (trust and exchange)

Peace in institutions (division of labor and predictability)

Peace among nations (trade and friendship)

Peace brings security; security attracts investment; investment strengthens specialization; specialization generates innovation; innovation brings prosperity.

Vietnam’s story demonstrates:Peace is not weakness—it is the strongest national infrastructure.
When a nation respects the intersubjective symbiotic process of life’s self-organizing connections,
it naturally moves toward original wealth, national wealth, and human flourishing.

Vietnam’s national fortune is rising,
and its trajectory invites Asia—and the world—to rethink the foundations of prosperity.