五个不可上瘾——川普总统或当以摩西为誡?
五个不可上瘾——川普总统或当以摩西为誡?
Five Addictions to Avoid—Trump Should Heed Moses’ Warning
By Archer Hong Qian
摩西在神的指引下,通过十灾和红海分开的神迹,带领以色列人逃离埃及的奴役,开启了通往应许之地的旅程(《出埃及记》14:21-22),然而,摩西并未能亲自进入应许之地(迦南地)。
在Holy Bible(圣约)叙事中,历经四十年忍辱负重一贯谦卑敬神已经120岁的摩西,在米利巴(Meribah)缺水事件被众人抱怨激怒,失去了极其谦和,胜过众人的品德,与众人一样激动争闹,神要他“吩咐”磐石出水,他却要“击打”磐石出水,这就有以神自居之嫌,有违“律法之约”,神宣告他不得进入应许之地(《民数记》20:12)。
这表明神忠心的仆人,也有软弱的时候,也有失足的时候,摩西毕竟是人,世上没有一个义人。经过四十年出埃、米甸旷野及进入迦南的陶冶磨练,他心里的血气依然被众人激怒了,人的怒气激动起来,就不能尊神的名为圣,守神的约为戒。摩西的两次击打而非照神的话“吩咐”,就是违约,是对神权威的冒犯,也未能谦卑地将磐石出水的神迹归功于神。这就预示了,摩西的角色是过渡性的,他的生命使命在于奠基,而非最终实现。最后,摩西在毗斯迦山(Mount Nebo)俯瞰迦南地眼中充满希冀地去世(《申命记》34:1-5),由约书亚(Joshua)接续带领以色列人进入迦南地。
也许,摩西的故事,对当代“神选之人”——美国第45-47任总统唐纳德·J·川普的行事风格,是一种警示,尤其是当川普真诚兑现对美国人民20个核心承诺取得辉煌成就时,这警示至少在五个方面,值得川普总统引以为诫:
第一是誡“推特治国上瘾”。
川普无疑是成功利用“推特治国”(X-Governance)模式直接对公众宣示自己政策主张的世界级政治家,但是如果在年轻有为行政团队进入有效执政——意味着基本摆脱“深层政府”“华盛顿沼泽”和“左媒”的掣肘噪声——之后,显然,仍然依赖个人社交媒体绕开正式的法律和行政程序治理国家,乃至“上瘾”这种方式,无疑会给自己和美国带来不必要困惑和困境。
参考:《破解人类组织行为动力学(Dynamics)与勰和学(Synergetics)失衡的老大难问题》http://symbiosism.com.cn/9470.html
第二是誡“追溯犯罪上瘾”。
针对过往美国政治人物、学界、媒体曾经加诸自己的不公,自然有必要利用司法、行政手段加以适当澄清和追溯,但也要讲究分寸,谨防“过犹不及”,给自己任内办理“优先事项”平添不必要的阻力。
参考:
第三是誡“打击非移上瘾”。
经过半年多来国土资源部和移民署执法,“非法移民”问题已经得到缓解,已经不是美国国民特别关注的问题,此时,应该将“打击”变为“身份转化”,逐步让多数人转化为合法劳动者。
参考:《Deportation, Integration, and Transformation: Three Concurrent Strategies to Address Illegal Immigration遣返、消化、改变三大策略并举》http://symbiosism.com.cn/10267.html
第四是誡“关税纠偏上瘾”。
面对全球化自由贸易中存在罗德里克三元悖论即某些主权国家利用“低人权优势”和“最惠国待遇”漏洞在对美贸易中造成的严重不公,美国第42、43、44任总统都没有找到好的办法解决,川普总统采用对兄弟国家、盟友、朋友和他者,都以“对等关税”+“交易艺术”的方式切入,是一大发明——既能增加部分收入,又能改变全球化规则。但是,凡事有个度,在最难的《美欧贸易恊定》谈定之后,对等关税政策,就应当朝着更有利于美国长远利益和“全球化重组”的方向调整,特别是,对那些“经济体量不大富有自然资源的国家”应当主动宣布采用“零关税”的政策。
参考:《川普的“百猴共生效应”:全球化重组交响诗(Trump’s "Hundred Monkey Symbiosis Effect": Global Reorganization Symphony)》
第五是誡“和平总统上瘾”。
如果说美国总统在经济“内生法则”上作为有限,但是在“外生法则”上,总统只要有足够的胆识,“以外带内”大有作为。这可是有先例的,如威尔逊总统果断参加一战,打出了一批文明国家,世界自由市场容量一夜扩容,美国经济也迅速腾飞。小罗斯福机智而果断参与二战,又打出一大批文明国家,特别是战后对德国、日本政治经济的成功改造和扶持,使世界自由市场有更大扩容,不但美国经济迅猛腾飞,美元成为世界经济发展的杠杆和保障,而且带动了一大批邓小平说的“凡是跟美国好的国家,都富裕了”(1979年访美在飞机上答李慎之问)。那么如今,俄乌战争、中东冲突、印太紧张的国际格局下,“以实力求和平”是基本态势,必要时,美国不能一味做“和事佬”,而且一旦采取行动!
参考:《大格局、大使命、大智慧——写于Trump当选第47任美国总统当日》http://symbiosism.com.cn/8893.html ;《Is Peace Achieved Through War or Negotiation?和平,是打出来的,还是谈出来的?——从解决俄乌战争方式,到全球共生新秩序塑造》 http://symbiosism.com.cn/9679.html
2025年8月3日草于Comfort Inn Toronto Airport West 204
五个不可上瘾——川普总统或当以摩西为誡
Five Addictions to Avoid—Trump Should Heed Moses’ Warning
By Archer Hong Qian
摩西在神的指引下,通过十灾和红海分开的神迹,带领以色列人逃离埃及的奴役,开启了通往应许之地的旅程(《出埃及记》14:21-22),然而,摩西并未能亲自进入应许之地(迦南地)。在《圣经》(Holy Bible)叙事中,历经四十年忍辱负重、一贯谦卑敬神的摩西,已年届120岁。在米利巴(Meribah)缺水事件中,他被众人的抱怨激怒,失去了胜过众人的谦和品德,与众人一样激动争闹。神要他“吩咐”磐石出水,他却“击打”磐石出水,这带有以神自居之嫌,违背了“律法之约”。因此,神宣告他不得进入应许之地(《民数记》20:12)。这表明,即便是神忠心的仆人,也会有软弱和失足之时。摩西毕竟是人,世上无一义人。经过四十年出埃及、米甸旷野及进入迦南的磨砺,他的血气仍被激怒,人的怒气无法尊神的名为圣,亦未能谦卑地将神迹归功于神。两次击打而非照神的话“吩咐”,是对神权威的冒犯,预示着摩西的角色是过渡性的,生命使命在于奠基而非最终实现。最后,摩西在毗斯迦山(Mount Nebo)俯瞰迦南地、眼中充满希冀地去世(《申命记》34:1-5),由约书亚(Joshua)接续带领以色列人进入迦南地。
Moses, under God’s guidance, led the Israelites out of Egyptian slavery through the miracles of the ten plagues and the parting of the Red Sea, beginning their journey to the Promised Land (Exodus 14:21-22). Yet, he did not enter Canaan himself. According to the Holy Bible, after forty years of enduring hardship with unwavering humility and reverence for God, Moses, now 120 years old, lost his renowned meekness during the Meribah water shortage incident. Provoked by the people’s complaints, he struck the rock twice to produce water instead of speaking to it as God commanded, an act suggesting self-deification and a breach of the “Covenant of Law.” Consequently, God declared he would not enter the Promised Land (Numbers 20:12). This reveals that even God’s faithful servant had moments of weakness and missteps. Moses, being human, was not without fault. After forty years of trials in the exodus, Midian wilderness, and the approach to Canaan, his temper flared, and human anger could not honor God’s name or humbly attribute the miracle to Him. Striking the rock twice, rather than obeying God’s command to speak, was a violation of divine authority, signifying Moses’ role as a transitional figure whose life mission was to lay the foundation, not to see its fulfillment. Ultimately, Moses died on Mount Nebo, gazing with hope at Canaan (Deuteronomy 34:1-5), with Joshua taking over to lead the Israelites into the land.
也许,摩西的故事对当代“神选之人”——美国第45-47任总统唐纳德·J·川普的行事风格,是一种警示。尤其是在川普真诚兑现对美国人民20个核心承诺取得辉煌成就时,这一警示在五个方面尤为值得川普总统引以为诫:
Perhaps Moses’ story serves as a warning to a contemporary “chosen one”—the 45th and 47th President of the United States, Donald J. Trump. Particularly as Trump sincerely fulfills his 20 core promises to the American people, achieving remarkable success, this warning is especially relevant in five key areas where he should exercise caution:
**第一是誡“推特治国上瘾”。
然而,如果在年轻有为的行政团队进入有效执政——意味着基本摆脱“深层政府”“华盛顿沼泽”和“左媒”的掣肘噪声——之后,他仍依赖个人社交媒体绕开正式法律和行政程序治理国家,甚至“上瘾”于此方式,无疑会给自己和美国带推特治国上瘾”**。川普无疑是成功利用“推特治国”(X-Governance)模式直接对公众宣示自己政策主张的世界级政治来不必要的困惑与困境。
**First, a Warning Against Addiction to Twitter Governance**:
Trump is undeniably a world-class political figure who successfully used “Twitter Governance” (X-Governance) to directly communicate his policy vision to the public. However, if, after a capable administrative team takes effective control—effectively overcoming the interference of the “deep state,” “Washington swamp,” and “left-wing media”—he continues to rely on personal social media to bypass formal legal and administrative processes, even becoming “addicted” to this approach, it will undoubtedly create unnecessary confusion and challenges for himself and the nation.
*参考*: 《破解人类组织行为动力学(Dynamics)与勰和学(Synergetics)失衡的老大难问题》[http://symbiosism.com.cn/9470.html](http://symbiosism.com.cn/9470.html).
**第二是誡“追溯犯罪上瘾”**。
针对过往美国政治人物、学界、媒体曾加诸自己的不公,适当利用司法和行政手段澄清与追溯是必要的,但需讲究分寸,谨防“过犹不及”,以免给任内办理“优先事项”增添不必要的阻力。
**Second, a Warning Against Addiction to Retribution**: Addressing past injustices from American politicians, academics, and media through judicial and administrative means is necessary, but moderation is key to avoid “overdoing it,” which could unnecessarily hinder the handling of priority issues during his term.
**第三是誡“打击非移上瘾”**。
经过半年多来国土资源部和移民署的执法,“非法移民”问题已得到缓解,不再是美国国民特别关注的问题。此时,应将“打击”转为“身份转化”,逐步让多数人转化为合法劳动者。
**Third, a Warning Against Addiction to Cracking Down on Illegal Immigration**:
After over six months of enforcement by the Department of Land Resources and Immigration Services, the illegal immigration issue has been alleviated and is no longer a top concern for American citizens. At this point, the focus should shift from “crackdown” to “identity conversion,” gradually transforming most into legal workers.
*参考*: 《Deportation, Integration, and Transformation: Three Concurrent Strategies to Address Illegal Immigration遣返、消化、改变三大策略并举》[http://symbiosism.com.cn/10267.html](http://symbiosism.com.cn/10267.html).
**第四是誡“关税纠偏上瘾”**。
面对全球化自由贸易中,某些主权国家利用“低人权优势”和“最惠国待遇”漏洞对美贸易造成的不公,前任总统(第42、43、44任)未找到有效解决办法。川普总统以“对等关税”+“交易艺术”切入,是一大发明,既增加收入,又改变全球化规则。但凡事有度,在《美欧贸易协定》谈定后,对等关税应调整为更有利于美国长远利益和“全球化重组”的方向,特别是对“经济体量不大、资源匮乏国家”主动宣布“零关税”政策。
**Fourth, a Warning Against Addiction to Tariff Adjustments**:
Confronted with the unfair trade practices of certain sovereign nations exploiting “low human rights advantages” and “most-favored-nation” loopholes in global free trade—issues unresolved by the 42nd, 43rd, and 44th presidents—Trump’s approach of “reciprocal tariffs” combined with “art of the deal” is a groundbreaking innovation, boosting revenue while reshaping global trade rules. However, moderation is essential. Post the U.S.-EU Trade Agreement, reciprocal tariffs should evolve toward policies benefiting America’s long-term interests and “global reorganization,” particularly by proactively offering “zero tariffs” to nations with small economies and limited resources.
*参考*: 《川普的“百猴共生效应”:全球化重组交响诗(Trump’s "Hundred Monkey Symbiosis Effect": Global Reorganization Symphony)》.
**第五是誡“和平总统上瘾”**。
美国总统在经济“内生法则”上作用有限,但在“外生法则”上,若有足够胆识,“以外带内”大有作为。历史先例如威尔逊参与一战、小罗斯福参与二战,成功扩充世界自由市场,带动美国经济腾飞及美元成为全球杠杆。如今,在俄乌战争、中东冲突、印太紧张的格局下,“以实力求和平”是基本态势,必要时美国不能一味做“和事佬”,而应果断行动。
**Fifth, a Warning Against Addiction to Being a Peace President**:
The U.S. president has limited influence over the “internal economic laws,” but with sufficient courage, the “external laws” offer significant opportunities to drive internal growth. Historical precedents include Wilson’s decisive entry into World War I and Roosevelt’s strategic involvement in World War II, both expanding the global free market, fueling America’s economic rise, and establishing the dollar as a global economic lever. Today, amid the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts, and Indo-Pacific tensions, “peace through strength” is the baseline. When necessary, the U.S. must avoid being a mere peacemaker and act decisively.
*参考*: 《大格局、大使命、大智慧——写于Trump当选第47任美国总统当日》[http://symbiosism.com.cn/8893.html](http://symbiosism.com.cn/8893.html); 《Is Peace Achieved Through War or Negotiation?和平,是打出来的,还是谈出来的?——从解决俄乌战争方式,到全球共生新秩序塑造》[http://symbiosism.com.cn/9679.html](http://symbiosism.com.cn/9679.html).
**写作时间**:2025年8月3日草于Comfort Inn Toronto Airport West 204;2025年8月4日凌晨1:07 EDT于线上完成更新。
**Writing Time**: Drafted on August 3, 2025, at Comfort Inn Toronto Airport West 204; updated online at 1:07 AM EDT, August 4, 2025.