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大陸全網刪除的中共對美超限戰的活教材(中英字幕,附文字版)


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大陸全網刪除的中共對美超限戰的活教材(中英字幕,附文字版)


翟東升:開放金融市場是向拜登釋放善意  華爾街搞不定川普

转自曾峥博客

(曾錚注:以下是中國人民大學國際關係學院副院長、中共對外戰略研究中心副主任兼祕書長、國際貨幣所特聘研究員翟東升2020年11月28日在總部位於上海的觀傳媒大型年終秀《答案》現場,圍繞《中國金融開放會引來華爾街之狼嗎?》的主題,發表的演講的節選。參加這次討論的還有前亞洲發展銀行前行長、中共央行前國際司司長張之驤、中共國務院發展研究中心世界發展研究所副所長丁一凡以及北大國家發展研究院院長姚洋。小標題是曾錚所加。)


大陸目前已經全網刪除中共對美國超限戰的活教材(中英字幕)


演講視頻(有英文字幕)


文字版:


2020年爲什麼金融開放在加速?

關鍵在什麼?關鍵就就在於我們今天這個主題,金融開放的問題。你金融市場還並沒有完全充分的開放,尤其是,除了外資機構進入的問題,展業的問題,還有一個什麼呢?還有一個資本項目並沒有完全真正的開放,所以它對上海的在全球層面上的這樣一個競爭,還是形成了一定的限制,我在《政經啓翟》中間曾經講過。那麼我的觀點,地球村里面目前只有一家半在賣保險,就美國。美國它的貨幣是全球儲備貨幣,所以它替別人承擔了風險,然後歐元擔任了半家,地球村里邊兩百多個大大小小的經濟體裡面,絕大部分都是付出代價來轉移風險,是這意思吧?都是付出代價轉移風險。就相當於投保客戶,地球村裏面只有一家半可以賣保險,開保險公司。


咱們中國性質比較特殊,地球村裏面最大的實體經濟,是這意思吧?最大的投保戶。因爲各種事情投保,我們投保了多少?3萬億美元,最高峯的4.2億美元。


問題就來了,假如哪天我們真的出事了,真有經濟金融風險了,我們動用我們的3萬億4萬億外匯儲備去找美國,這相當於一張保單嘛,找美國說你幫我兌付,他也得破產。是這意思吧?這保險公司說,抱歉,不幹了。是不是?


所以從這個邏輯上來講,我一貫是反對原先那種中美的掛鉤方式,過會兒還會談到,我也一直主張中國人民幣要國際化,我一直主張我們也要開這個保險公司。要想開這保險公司,就是今天這個話題,金融市場得開放,資本項目得適度開放。


那麼為什麼最近,我們都知道19年,尤其是進入2020年,那麼中國的金融開放是加速的,為什麼加速?首先第一個原因,2001年中國加入世貿組織的時候,我們是承諾過的,承諾我們會在條件合適的時候儘快開放,但是20年了,剛才姚老師講到,外資金融機構進來,他們有多少進來?大家生活中,你買股票是通過外資投行買嗎?你存銀行存的是外資銀行嗎?最多保險公司稍微有一點。所以這個事情,咱們要前半夜想想人家,後半夜再想想自己。就是你承諾過開放,你要兌現。要不然憑什麼人家的門向你開放?開放是相互的。


政治和戰術的考量:華爾街搞不定特朗普


那麼以前我們是以那樣一種方式,剛才講過的那樣一種方式掛鉤,但是現在人家想跟我們脫鈎,所以我的理解,當然是我個人的解讀,為什麼在現在這個時候開始加速?首先是20年前我們承諾過的,第2個,當前中國政府力推金融市場開放,在時機上可能,我最再強調一下,這是我個人猜測,可能跟這個政治和戰術考量有關係。為什麼?因為我們知道,前邊特朗普政府跟我們打貿易戰,那麼我們為什麼搞不定特朗普政府?為什麼以前,1992年到2016年之間,中美之間各種問題都能搞得定?大家發現沒有,什麼的危機,不管是銀河號事件,還是炸大使館,還是撞了飛機,所以事情全部都是「牀頭吵架牀尾和」,两个月之内搞定。什么原因?這兒我抛出一个,可能又是要暴論了,就是因爲咱們上邊有人。我們在美國的權勢核心圈,我們有我們的老朋友。


“中國人民的老朋友”用《教父》中黑社會經典手法搞定華盛頓“不聽話”書店老闆


時間關係,我這兒就不多展開,給大家講個小故事。張市長我看講得非常好,都是講故事,是吧?所以我也講個故事。


哎呀,可惜這故事……今天全網直播,據說百萬人在看,所以我得掌握一下這個度,不能把人給賣了。

這麼講吧,2015年,上上次習總書記訪問美國之前,我們知道,各個系統都要在美國幫他暖場,是不是?那麼咱們黨的某個系統,他在美國幫他暖場的方式,就是輿論,就是《習近平談治國理論》這本書的英文版新書,第一版新書發布會,放在美國,在他去之前,先搞個新書發布會,幫他造勢。

由誰來做呢?就跟今天一樣,他們發現,說翟東升,你這家夥比較擅長忽悠老外,是不是?因爲他們看過我怎麼忽悠老外的,他們覺得現場效果非常不錯,你來主持兼嘉賓,所以那次跟咱們今天這個活動很相似,我既是主持,又是嘉賓。


地點呢,領導定下來了,他說,這個誰誰誰,你們下週,下週禮拜四,下午三點半,去那個美國最重要的政治與散文書店,在華盛頓Connecticut大街,2650吧?好像是,專業書店,去那邊辦一個新書發布會,我們就趕緊去溝通啊。


大家知道這個東西方工作方式不一樣,你臨時抱佛腳讓我去溝通這個地點,時間,很麻煩的,結果那個書店老闆很傲嬌,他說抱歉,接待不了,接待不了,後來我就問,我說,你告訴我,哪位作者把這個場次定下來了?啥意思啊?天下沒有美元搞不定的事情,是吧?如果一沓美元搞不定,我就兩沓。當然這是我的工作方式。


結果書店老闆很傲嬌,說抱歉,我不會告訴你哪個作者已經把這個時間段定下來了,我們是有原則的,他跟我非常傲嬌,他跟我很裝,後來一打聽才知道,這哥們啊,以前是民主黨人, 以前做過駐亞洲的記者,對我黨非常有看法,所以故意的不配合。


後來我以爲這事兒給黃了,至少得換時間,換地點,是吧?結果,我把矛盾上交吧,讓領導去解決吧,反正我是客串的,幫忙的,是吧?


結果到了禮拜四早上,咱們那個部的副部級領導,也是那天的真正的keynote speaker,他給我打電話,說小翟啊,咱們按我方原計劃,在那個時間,在那個地點,繼續照辦。


吃完午飯我就趕去,結果領導到得比我還早,跟我介紹,今天我們之所以能夠得以按照原計劃順利執行,就是因爲我們今天這位功臣,他介紹一位大鼻子的老太太,一看就是猶太人,老太太給我遞名片,我叫某某某,我這兒名字不賣了,我叫某某某,請多關照,注意啊,一口流利的京片子,北京話,


我很驚訝,我說,哎呦,您這個中文講得比我還棒啊,我永遠改不了我的江蘇口音,您這個一點口音都沒有啊。老太太聽我誇她口音好,得意了,我告訴你啊,我不但會講中文,我還有中國國籍。


大家知道吧?你有外國國籍嗎?你如果有外國國籍,你就不可能有中國國籍嘛,是不是?她這個老太太是不可能爲了中國國籍放棄美國和以色列雙重國籍的,是這意思吧?


哦,我一下明白了,這是我們中國人民老朋友啦,下邊還有一句話,讓我印象非常深刻,我不但有中國國籍,我還有北京市戶口,長安街邊上,東城區有一套四合院,等你回來北京過來喝茶,這一年你在這兒有啥事兒,記得找我,意思嘛,這地點我罩得住。


然後我看見前邊那個很傲嬌的那個書店老闆滿臉黑起來,安排員工排桌子排椅子,很不情願,被人強按著幹這事兒,接這個茬。


我說你怎麼搞定他的?我們前面溝通,溝通不下來呀,很傲嬌的,老太太狡詰一笑,「我跟他講道理。」


大家知道這話來路吧?美國著名黑手黨電影《教父》裏面的經典臺詞,把人家馬頭給砍了,塞人家被窩裏面。


當然老太太不是黑手黨,老太太身份是什麼?她爲什麼在中國住了三十年?爲什麼講一口流利的京片子?就剛才我們講的,全球華爾街某著名金融機構,頂級金融機構亞洲區的總裁。當然再說下去可能政治不正確了。


大家明白我意思吧?懂得(給)掌声啊。


好,那麽其實就是說,說的白了點,其實就過去30年,過去40年,我們在美國利用他權勢核心。


拜登上臺了,我們需表示善意


我前面講過,華爾街在1970年代開始,對美國它的內政外交有非常強的影響力,所以我們有路徑依賴,但問題是08年之後華爾街的地位下降了,更重要的是16年之後華爾街搞不定特朗普。為什麽?很尷尬。特朗普以前對華爾街有過壹次軟性違約,所以雙方有矛盾,當然這個細節我就不多說了,時間可能已經來不及了。


那麽中美貿易戰過程中,他們也試圖幫忙,據我所知,美方的朋友跟我講,試圖幫忙,但是力有不逮。


但現在我們看到拜登上臺了,傳統的精英,政治精英,建制派,他們跟華爾街的關系是非常密切的,所以大家看到了吧?拜登的兒子被特朗普說,妳在全球有什麽基金公司,發現沒有?誰幫他建的基金公司啊?明白了?這裏面都有買賣。


那麼所以這個時候,我們以恰當的方式進行一定的,這樣一個,表達一個善意,我個人理解,當然受限於我的專業基礎,我們是從國際政治經濟學的角度,去理解這個事。那麽我認為有他的戰術和政治的價值在裏面。 


當然另外壹方面, 中美之間開放本身,現在我們開放金融市場,很多人以為說,開放金融市場,妳是不是向人做了重大讓步,妳 開放金融市場不是就是為了抱著美國大腿後,哭著喊著妳別跑,別甩下我,是不是這樣?為了不脫鉤?


開放金融市場 免被別人卡脖子


能不能這麽理解?我的理解反過來。我恰恰認為,這可能又是壹個暴論,恰恰認為,金融市場開放恰恰是對美國的某種意義上的脫鉤。我們開放金融市場,恰恰是某種意義上脫鉤。那我再問大家了,為什麽咱們有許多地方被人卡脖子?大家知道了,今天中午剛剛看到壹個新聞,人家發我這個新聞,咱們香港特首林鄭月娥,現在如果每天上街買菜買包買衣服,大家知道幹嘛呢?揣了壹大把的現金。為什麽?她已經沒有銀行賬戶了,她沒辦法用credit card,沒法用什麽金融支付工具,只能用現金去買東西。


為什麽?她被美國制裁了。那麽為什麽我們會被美國制裁?為什麽我們在金融上、支付上、跨境支付上,為我們在芯片上等等,還有軟件上等等會被美國制裁?什麽原因,為什麽在底層的科學上、技術上,我們會被美國制裁?它背後什麽原因,當然有很多原因,在這兒我想提出壹個觀點,就這個原因,恰恰就在於以前的中美的掛鉤方式。


我們知道在80年代的時候,東北是很繁榮的,為什麽?東北是整個中國經濟的根部。是不是這樣,我們的大學是自己做底層的科學研究的,為什麽?因為我們那個時候是壹個獨自存在的壹顆,也可以把它理解成壹棵樹,它有自己的根,有自己的幹,有自己的莖,還有自己的葉,有自己的花 ,當然比較小壹點,相對於美國主導的世界資本主義體系,世界市場體系,它的分工體系,妳這個要小得多,力量弱得多。


但是妳是完整的、獨立的工業體系。中國加入到美國主導的世界經濟, 尤其是92年大規模,92年之後我們大規模招商引資,所以東南沿海的迅速發展起來了,東北衰落了,爲什麼?其實就是沿著幹的中部哢嚓壹刀,把上邊的直接嫁接到它的根和幹上去了。明白嗎?那個能量很大,那個市場很大,所以迅速的繁榮,迅速開花結果,我們今天都在享受這個決策的成果,我們每個人都過得好了。


但問題是,所有的選擇,所有的戰略都有它的代價,是不是這個意思?這代價是什麽?我們原先根和枝幹就枯萎了,所以原先我們有兩、三百家做芯片、做光刻機的這種全產業鏈的企業,就都枯萎了,因為妳進口人家成功的、更小的、更高科技的東西就行了,我們的軟件就不用開發了,用人家的軟件不是比妳的更好?那明白吧?所以以前我們融入美國主導的全球化,我們是贏家。


但註意,這是有代價的,今天我們面臨的困境,恰恰是這樣壹種融入方式的必然的代價的表現。那麽以前的融入是我們在FBI,就是外資直接投資,妳來我這開廠,舉雙手歡迎,然後呢貿易我們倆充分的開放,但是金融不開放,資本項目,就是protfolio investment這塊,剛才丁老師講到的,這塊是不開放的。


由於此前這樣壹種互相融合的方式,所以使得我們其實是什麼,妳可以說是寄生,也可以說是嫁接在它的那個體系上的壹個植物。它是有代價的。那麽數字巨頭這些年股票主要漲,主要是什麼?數字巨頭,發現了沒有?後金融危機時代,過去這12年裏面,漲得多的公司股票價格,資產價格上漲厲害的是誰?阿裏,就是「三馬」。「三馬」帶頭,還有其他壹些數字科技,掙了中國市場很多錢,非常有談判力,非常有談判地位,非常有定價權,他們的資本增值,在座各位掙到了嗎?妳們在炒中國股市的時候能掙到錢嗎?掙不著吧?那麽主要的利潤在哪裏?那部分經濟改革所帶來的資本升值主要體現在哪裏?納斯達克,這就是首先原來我們跟美國掛鉤的方式。所以美國說要跟中國脫鉤,我覺得這個不是什麽壞事,我們要的工業化已經實現了,他現在要脫鉤,我覺得正中下懷。


當然美國要脫鉤,把咱們這邊壹些,對這個邏輯關系,對裏面內在的底層邏輯搞得不太清楚的人給嚇著了,所以我認為開放金融市場,其實是以後我們中國人存的錢,直接在上海的金融市場,在深圳的資本金融市場轉換成資本,轉化投資了。我們的儲蓄直接轉化成投資了,而不是轉化成外匯儲備,放在美國國債、歐洲國債、日本國債裏邊。而是直接放在中國本土的金融市場中間。


然後全球的金融玩家過來,在這個市場裏面把它轉化成投資。大家明白了嗎?那麽從這個邏輯上來講,等到我們金融開放搞成,未來咱們炒上海的股票、深圳的股票,贏錢的機會會大那麽壹點點,還是有限的,那麽所以其實這個過程中,大家註意,大家別覺得金融是虛的,虛的東西很重要,金融和教育和高科技研發,他們其實都是那棵樹的根,那個根我們要種在自己家院子裏邊,重新長出自己的根來。


妳說妳這個開放妳不還是讓老外進來掙咱們的錢了嗎?大家註意啊,這個是不壹樣的,以前我們的企業是去人家那兒上市,是遵守人家的規則,主要是人家的投資者,來從我們的企業中獲得,而我們現在是種到自家院子裏邊來,規則,什麽時候澆水,什麽時候太曬太陽,是由我們來定,所以主導權是不一樣的。

12/3/2020


英文版:

Zhang Zhizhen, Former President of the Asian Development Bank and former Director of the International Department of the Central Bank of the Communist Party of China, Ding Yifan, Deputy Director of the World Development Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China, and Yao Yang, President of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, also participated in this event.

 The translation was done by Jennifer. Subtitles were added by Jennifer too. )


?Why Has the Opening up of China's Financial  Sector Been Accelerating? 


 What is the key? The key lies in our theme today, the issue of the opening up of the financial sector. Our financial markets are not yet fully open, especially, besides the problem of how foreign institutes can enter, there are problems with how they can operate. And there is another problem, which is, our capital account sector is not really fully opened. So it still imposes certain limitations on Shanghai's ability to compete on a global level, as I mentioned in my program "Politics and Economics Enlightenment ". In my opinion, there are only one and a half companies in the global village that sell insurance, and that is the United States. The currency of the U.S. is the global reserve currency, so it takes the risk for others, and then the euro is half of an insurance entity. The vast majority of the more than 200 economies of all sizes in the global village are paying a price to transfer risk, right? It is all about risk transfer at a price. It is like an insured customer. There are only one and a half companies in the global village that can sell insurance, can start an insurance company.

The nature of our China is quite special. It is the largest real economy in the global village, right? The largest insured customer who is buying insurance for all sorts of affairs. How much do we pay for the premium? $3 trillion, with a peak of $4.2 trillion.


The problem is, if one day something really happens to us, when we do have a real economic and financial crisis, and we use our foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion or $4 trillion to go to the United States, it's like an insurance policy, if you go to the United States and ask it to pay us, they'll go bankrupt, right? This insurance company will say, "Sorry, I won't do this business anymore." Right?


Therefore,  in terms of this logic, I have always opposed the original way of coupling between China and the U.S. I will talk about this later. I have always advocated the internationalization of the Chinese Renminbi, and I have always advocated that we should also open this insurance company. In order to open this insurance company, which is our topic of today's discussion, the financial market has to be opened, and the capital account has to be opened to a suitable degree.


So why is it that recently, as we all know, since 2019, especially after we entered 2020, the opening up of China's financial sector has been accelerating? Why is it accelerating? First of all, when China joined the WTO in 2001, we committed that we would open up as soon as conditions were right. However, after 20 years, as Mr. Yao just said, how many foreign financial institutions have come in? How many have entered? In your daily life, do you buy stocks through foreign investment banks? Are you depositing in a foreign bank? At most, there are a few (foreign) insurance companies. So for this matter, we have to think from others' angle in the first half of the night, then from our angle in the second half of the night. You've promised to open, and you have to deliver that. Otherwise, why should people's doors be open to you? The openness is mutual. 

Political and Tactical Considerations: Wall Street Can’t Fix Trump

So before we coupled with each other in that way that I just talked about. But now people want to decouple from us, so my understanding, and of course, it's my personal interpretation, why are we starting to accelerate at this point of time? First of all, that's what we promised 20 years ago, and secondly, the current push by the Chinese government to open up the financial sector, in terms of timing, and I must emphasize again, that this is my personal speculation, may have something to do with political and tactical considerations. Why? Because we know that the Trump administration is in a trade war with us, so why can't we fix the Trump administration? Why did China and the U.S. use to be able to settle all kinds of issues between 1992 and 2016? No matter what kind of crises we encountered, be it the Yinhe incident, the bombing of the embassy, or the crashing of the plane, things were all solved in no time, like (a couple) do with their quarrels starting at the bedhead but ending at the bed end. We fixed everything in two months. What is the reason? I'm going to throw out something maybe a little bit explosive here. It's just because we have people at the top. We have our old friends who are at the top of America's core inner circle of power & influence.

A True Story: How A Wall Street “Old Friend” of the CCP Fixed the Owner of "Politics and Prose" Bookstore in Washington DC. for Xi Jinping

As we don't have much time, so I won't go into details here. I'll only tell a little story. Mayor Zhang just told some stories. It worked very well, right? So I'll also tell a story.


Oops, it's a shame that this story ...... We are doing a live broadcast on the whole internet today, and it is said that a million people are watching it, so I have to control how much I can tell. I can't betray others.


Let's put it this way, in 2015, before the last visit of General Secretary Xi to the United States, we know, that all our systems in the United States needed to work at warming things up, right? 


So one of our party's systems, the way that system could help to warm things up in the U.S., was public opinion. (So it was arranged that ) the first edition of the English version of Xi Jinping's new book "Xi Jinping: The Governance of China"  would be released in the U.S. Before he visited the U.S., we would hold a book release event to help him build up the momentum.


Who should do it? Just like today, they found out (they said to me), Di Dongsheng, you have a way with foreigners and are better at fooling them, right? Because they had seen how I fooled foreigners, and they thought it was very good, so they said, "You act as the host and guest speaker", so it's very similar to our event today, where I'm both the host and a guest speaker.


So the venue for this event was already decided by the leader. He said it was next week, next Thursday, 3:30 p.m., Go to the most important "Politics and Prose" bookstore in the United States, on 2650 Connecticut Avenue in Washington? It seems like the number. That is a professional bookstore. So we needed to go over there for the book launch, and we needed to hurry up to communicate with the store.


We all know that the East and West work in different ways. You asked me to secure that venue on such short notice, it was tough. 


It turned out that the bookstore owner was very spoiled, he said sorry, we can not host you. Then I asked, I said, you tell me, which author booked this session? What did I mean by that? There's nothing that dollars can't handle, right? If I can't do it with one stack of dollars, I'll do it with two. Of course, that's my way of handling things.


But alas, the bookstore owner was very spoiled and said, "I'm sorry, I'm not going to tell you which author has booked this time slot, we have our principles."


So he was very spoiled. He really put on airs with me. 


So I asked around and found out that he was a Democrat before, and was once a journalist in Asia. He was very unhappy with our party, so he purposely chose not to cooperate. 


Then I thought that we had lost the chance, at least we needed to change the time and place, right? So I turned this issue over to the leaders, let the leadership solve it. I was only a guest to help, right?


On Thursday morning, the vice department head of that department, who was also the real keynote speaker of that day, called me and said, "Little Di, let's go ahead with our original plan, at the same time and place, as we planned."


After lunch I rushed to the bookstore, only to find that the leadership was there earlier than I. He said, the reason why today we were able to follow our original plan, to execute it smoothly, is because of this outstanding person. Then he introduced an old lady to me. She has a big nose, and I could tell that she is Jewish by the first glimpse. She handed me a business card, saying, my name is so-and-so, I won't betray her name here. She said, my name is so-and-so, nice to meet you.

Attention! She speaks very fluent Mandarin in the Beijing dialect. 

I was very surprised. I said, "Oh my, you speak Chinese even better than I do, I can never get rid of my Jiangsu accent."

Upon hearing that I flattered her, she was very pleased. She said, Let me tell you, not only do I speak Chinese, but I also have Chinese citizenship.


Do you understand this? Do you have foreign citizenship? If you have foreign citizenship, you can't have Chinese citizenship, right? This old lady wouldn't give up her dual U.S.-Israeli citizenship for Chinese citizenship, right?


So I immediately understood that she was an old friend of us Chinese people. 


She then said another sentence that impressed me very much. 


She said, I not only have Chinese citizenship but also have Beijing Hukou( registered permanent residence). I have a Siheyuan (quadrangle dwellings) on Chang'an Street in the Dongcheng district. When you come back to Beijing, come and have tea with me. If you need anything here this year, don't forget to call me. What did that mean? She could fix anything here. 


Then I saw the owner of the bookstore, who was very proud of himself before, with an unhappy face, asking his employees to arrange tables and chairs. He was very reluctant, as he was forced to do this.


I said, "How did you fix him? We tried to communicate with him, but failed. He was very spoiled." The old lady smiled wryly and said, "I reasoned with him."


Do you know where that sentence comes from? 


It's a classic line in the famous American Mafia movie "The Godfather". That guy cut off the head of a horse and stuffed it into someone's blanket.


Of course, the old lady was not in the Mafia, but who was she? Why did she live in China for 30 years? Why can she speak fluent Beijing dialect? As we just said, Wall Street. She is from a famous, leading global financial institution on Wall Street.  She is the president of the Asia region of a top-level financial institution. Of course, it would be politically incorrect for me to go on.


Do you understand what I mean? If you do, put your hands together! 


Biden’s Election and CCP’s Goodwill: “There Are A Lot of Deals in All These”


 Okay, so in fact, that is to say, to put it bluntly, for the past 30 years, 40 years, we have been utilizing the core power of the United States.


As I said before, since the 1970s, Wall Street had a very strong influence on the domestic and foreign affairs of the United States. So we had a channel to rely on. But the problem is that after 2008, the status of Wall Street has declined, and more importantly, after 2016, Wall Street can’t fix Trump. It's very awkward. Why? Trump had a previous soft default issue with Wall Street, so there was a conflict between them, but I won't go into details, I may not have enough time.

So during the US-China trade war, they (Wall Street) tried to help, and I know that my friends on the US side told me that they tried to help, but they couldn't do much. 


But now we're seeing Biden was elected, the traditional elite, the political elite, the establishment, they're very close to Wall Street, so you see that, right? 


Trump has been saying that Biden's son has some sort of global foundation. Have you noticed that? 


Who helped him (Biden's son) build the foundations? Got it? There are a lot of deals inside all these. 


Then, so, at such a time, we use an appropriate way to express some goodwill. This is my personal understanding based on my limited professional background. If we understand this matter from the perspective of the international political economy, I think there is a tactical and political value in it. 


On the other hand, of course, the opening of the financial markets between China and the United States itself, now we are opening up the financial sectors, many people think that opening up the financial markets means major concessions. The purpose of your opening up the financial markets is to hold tight on the big thigh of America, right? You hold on to the United States, crying out loud: don't run away, don't dump me, is that the case? In order not to be decoupled?

Open Up Our Financial Market So We Can Have the Dominance

 Can you understand it that way? I understand it the other way around. I happen to think- this could be another explosive theory-and I happen to think that opening the financial markets is precisely a sort of decoupling of the United States. We're opening up the financial markets, and that's exactly what decoupling is in a sense. So I ask you again, why are we given such a hard time in many places? As you know, I just saw the news today, at noon, people sent me this news, our Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Mrs. Carrie Lam, if she goes out every day to buy groceries, bags, and clothes, do you know what? She carries a large amount of cash. Why? She doesn't have a bank account anymore, she can't use a credit card, she can't use any financial payment tools, she can only buy things with cash.


Why? She was sanctioned by the United States. So why are we being sanctioned by the United States? Why are we being sanctioned by the U.S. on finance, on payments, on cross-border payments, on chips, on software, etc.? What is the reason, and why are we being sanctioned by the United States in terms of basic science and technology? There are of course many reasons behind this, and I would like to make a point here that this reason lies precisely in the way of how the US and China previously coupled.


We know that in the '80s the Northeast (of China) was booming. Why? The Northeast is the root of the entire Chinese economy. Isn't it true that our universities do their own basic scientific research? And why? Because at that time we were an independent... You can understand it as a tree, with its own roots, its own trunk, its own stem, its own leaves, its own flowers. Smaller, of course, compared to the U.S.-dominated world capitalist system, the world market system, its division of labor system, you are much smaller, much weaker.


But you are a complete and independent industrial system. China joined the U.S.-dominated world economy, especially on a large scale in 1992, and after 1992 we attracted investment on a large scale, so the Southeast coast developed rapidly and the Northeast declined, why? In fact, it's because that tree was cut from the middle of the stem, the upper half was grafted directly onto another system's roots and stem. Get it? That energy was big, that market was big, so it boomed quickly, it blossomed quickly, and we're all enjoying the fruits of that decision today, and we're all better off.


But the question is, all choices, all strategies have their price, right? What is the cost? Our original roots and branches withered away. Originally, we had two to three hundred companies that made chips, lithography, and this whole industrial chain. Now they all withered away because you can just import other people's successful, smaller, more high-tech things, our software does not need to be developed, using other people's software is better than yours. Understand? So, in the past, after we were integrated into the U.S.-led globalization, we were the winner.


But note that this comes at a price, and the predicament we face today is precisely the manifestation of the inevitable price of such a way of integration. The previous integration was we accept FDI, that is, foreign direct investment, you come to my place to open factories, we welcome you with open arms. As for the trade, we both fully open. But we don’t open the financial sector. As to the capital account, which is, the portfolio investment, just like Mr. Ding said, we don’t open this.


So the previous integration is actually, you can call it a parasite, or you can call it a plant that was grafted onto another system. It comes at a cost. So the digital giants, did you see that the shares that are going up these years are all from digital giants?


Have you noticed it? In the post-financial crisis era,  in the past 12 years, who are the companies whose stock prices and asset prices have risen the most? They are Alibaba, the "three Ma"(Jack Ma, MaHuateng, Ma mingzhe). The "three-Ma" led the way, followed by some other digital companies, they made a lot of money from the Chinese market. They have a lot of bargaining power, a lot of bargaining positions, a lot of pricing power, a lot of capital appreciation. Have you guys made any money? Did you guys make any money when you speculated in the Chinese stock market? You didn't, right? So where is the main profit? Where does the capital appreciation that results from that part of the economic reform take place? Nasdaq. That's the previous way we were originally coupled with the United States. So the U.S. said they want to decouple with China now, I think this is not a bad thing. The industrialization we wanted before has been achieved. They now want to decouple, I think that's exactly what we want.


Of course, the U.S. wants to decouple. Some of us, those who don't quite understand the inner logic of the relationship, got really frightened. 

But I think that after we open up our financial sector, in the future, the money Chinese people save will be turned into capital and investment directly at the financial and capital market in Shanghai, in Shenzhen. Our savings will be directly transformed into investment, instead of converting into foreign exchange reserves, and then being put as American government bonds, European government bonds, Japanese government bonds. They will be directly in China's local financial market. 


And then the global financial players come over and turn it into investment in this market. Do you understand? So from this logic, when our financial opening-up succeeds, we will be speculating on Shanghai stocks and Shenzhen stocks in the future, the chance to win money will be a little bit bigger, although still limited. So in fact, during this process, please pay attention, don't think that the financial sector is something virtual and empty. Virtual things are very important. Finance, education, and high-tech research and development, they are actually the root of the tree, the root we want to plant in our own home, inside our own yard. We need to have our roots grow again.


You may say, won't this opening up allow foreigners to come in and earn our money? No, this is different. In the past, our enterprises went public at other people's markets, and followed other people's rules. It was mainly other people's investors profiting from our businesses. But now we are planting in our own yard, and the rules, when to water, when to sunbathe, are set by us, so who has the dominance is different.


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  • 当前共有5条评论
  • Pascal

    屏蔽 举报回复
  • 白草

    美国有对中国金融开放吗?美国人可以直接买卖中国股票吗?美国正打算把美国上市的中国股票都赶走呢。这种单向开放的政策都是美国人指导的吧?

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  • Siubuding

    我党并非铁板一块。党内无派,千奇百怪。


    我的阴谋论是,党内有人通过翟东升给习近平同志和拜登同志又挖一个很大的坑。


    至于“党内有人”是谁呢?


    请竞猜。


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  • Siubuding 回复 一冰

    从毛伟人时代就开始了。我还记得当年七十年代在电影院看关于毛主席的记录片或新闻片,就是套用《意志的胜利》(德語:Triumph des Willens)的美学模板。


    只不过从90年代开始,这些研究不再保密。

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  • 一冰

    我觉得超有趣的,就是大陆对戈培尔宣传方式的研究。

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